Barthel leads their previous matches 3-2. They last met In Luxembourg in October 2016. Larsson won on an indoor hard court in straight sets. She won their only clay match in the final of this tournament in 2015, She won in 2 sets.
Barthel has better stats on clay this season. She won the title in Prague and made the 3rd round in Rome but her last 2 clay tournaments saw her lose as
favourite in the 1st round.
Larsson’s recent form on clay is stronger. She won an ITF title on clay 2 weeks ago and last week got to the quarter finals in Gstaad losing to Bertens in straight sets.
This looks like being a 3 setter. Some value on Barthel to take a set at least.
Lay Larsson below 1.40. She starts around 1.67.
Remove or reduce liability if Barthel then breaks and holds her own serve.