Hantuchova v Peng:

Hantuchova leads the head to head 2-0 with both matches being on hard courts.

Hantuchova really struggled against Hercog yesterday losing the opening set. She needed a 3rd set tie break to secure the win.

Peng beat Bartoli in straight sets. She has been unspectacular so far this year.

Hantuchova has clearly had the better start of the two players with 2 finals and one title. Her last couple of matches since that title win have seen her looking tired. Perhaps she needs a week off.

This is another tough match to call but I think Peng’s consistency will win through in the end. She will be relying on Hantuchova making a lot of unforced errors though.

Peng to win in 3 sets.

Copa Claro – 19:00

Hanescu v Nishikori:

Nishikori doesn’t have many clay court matches under his belt on the main tour. However he does say that clay is his favourite surface. Watching him against former French Open champion Ferrero the other night it was easy to see why. He made a slow start and dropped a break behind but soon got his ground strokes flowing.

Hanescu has started 2012 pretty well on the clay with just a 3 set loss to Almagro in Brazil to spoil his results..  Against Andujar in the first round he really should have won the match in straight sets but a poor service game at the end of the second set handed it to his opponent. In the third set he was again a break up but couldn’t hold on to it. He won the match in a tie break.

Nishikori is by far the more consistent of the two and his win over Ferrero will have given him a massive boost of confidence in his clay court game.

Hanescu will probably be able to keep the first set close  and may even take it but I expect Nishikori to come through in the end.

Basically I found a page a couple of days ago and didn’t know what it was for. It was called sample page so I thought it was one I just hadn’t deleted when I set the blog up. WRONG! It was to do with subscriptions.

Sorry about that!

Halep v Pavlyuchenkova:

Pavlyuchenkova isn’t in the best physical shape she’s ever been in. That extra weight in the Dubai sun isn’t going to be pretty. I think she will struggle with her serve in the wind too. Not much to be positive about her chances here.

Halep has come through qualifying beating Kudryatseva and Martinez-Sanchez. She reached the 3rd round in Doha last week losing to Azarenka. Her first serve has been very effective so far but a weak second serve may give her opponent a few chances.

Don’t expect to see a great tennis match but the graphs will look like heart monitors.

Pavlyuchenkova, as world number 15 should be able to use her experience to handle the conditions but her confidence has to be low.

Lots of breaks and perhaps 3 sets but Halep has the edge.

Update: Halep won 6-4, 6-2.

RMK Memphis – 20:00

Blake v Sweeting:

America is about the only place that Blake plays well these days. Having said that he doesn’t have a good record in Memphis. He lost to qualifyer Kendrick last year in the second round and the 2 previous years was unfortunate to get Roddick and Hewitt, each in the first round.

This is the first year that Sweeting hasn’t had to come through qualifying to reach the main draw. He is able to push some of the higher ranks quite close if its his day. Ferrer needed 5 sets to beat him in the Australian Open. Just last week Benneteau needed 2 tie breaks to beat him.

Sweeting has lost 7 in a row on indoor hard courts. He did beat Blake in 2010 on a hard court in Washington which is their only previous match on a hard court. Blake won their other meeting on clay in April last year.

Blake has been battling a knee injury and hasn’t played a competitive match since October last year.

Blake could easily take a few games to get his timing right and may even be using this match to get some match fitness.

Normally I would have Blake as favourite but his current form has to be below his normal level.

Probably a close one but Sweeting to take it.

Update: Sweeting won 6-0, 6-2.

Open 13 -14:30

Ljubicic v Serra:

Ljubicic is in an awful run of form. Losses to Huta Galung and Berrer in his last 2 matches won’t help his confidence.

Serra is now ranked 133 and is ticking along nicely on the Challenger tour. He reached the quarter finals in the Quimper Challenger (France) a couple of weeks ago on hard courts. He has been given a wild card entry here in his home country.

Head to heads are 4-0 to Ljubicic.

Every time Serra has played in Marseliie he has been knocked out by another Frenchman. As he catches Ljubicic in poor form and is playing on home soil I think he could make a decent match of this. If he can take it to 3 sets I would make Serra favourite as Ljubicic has looked worn out in his previous matches.

I want to see if Serra is able to compete and keep it close and then will look for a lay at a decent price below the starting price of 1.50 .

Update: Ljubicic took the first set but there was plenty of pressure from Serra which pushed his price much higher. Serra took the second in a tie break and Ljubicic won the third.

Ljubicic won 6-4, 6-7, 6-3.

RMK Memphis – 20:00

Erakovic v Stephens

Stephens is playing on home soil. She pushed Kuznetsova very close at the Oz Open losing 6-7, 5-7.  She reached the third round at last year’s US Open beating Peer in straight sets.

Erakovic played on clay last week which won’t help her in her first match this week. Her form has been ok and she took Kerber to 3 sets in January.

This should be a close one and I think we will see 3 sets. It won’t the best tennis you have ever seen but should give a few breaks of serve so lots of trading opportunities. Tough to call but I think Stephens will trade below 1.50 at some point.

Update: Stephens did trade under 1.50 when she won the first set. It was down in the 1.3x’s. Not sure what happened after that as she only won 1 more game in the whole match.

Erakovic won 4-6, 6-0, 6-1.

Federer v Del Potro:

Head to heads are 8-2 in Federer’s favour. He has won both their recent matches (last 2 years) in straight sets, both on hard courts.

Fed’s price opened at around 1.60 but moved out 10 ticks pretty quickly and has remained around 1.70 since (other than a spike up to above 1.80).  I don’t think many expected Davydenko to take Federer to 3 sets. However the Russian showed some of the old Davy’s form, as he had done to beat Gasquet, but couldn’t maintain that for the third set.

I also don’t think many expected Del Potro to beat Berdych so easily. Prior to that match only Nadal had beaten Bedych in 2012.

Del Potro has raced back into the top 10 following his extended break from the tour due to injury. I feel he still has more to give but he is capable in his current form of making more of a match of this than he did in Federer’s easy straight sets win at the Australian Open.

I think Federer was taken by surprise at the level of Davydenko’s play during the opening couple of sets yesterday but was able to step up a gear to get the job done.

An advantage that Fed has over a lot of players is that before they made it to the big stage Fed was their tennis hero. How must that feel to look up  a second before you serve and see Federer staring at you preparing o receive that serve? The better and more established the player the less this will have an effect but at this level any edge is significant.

Federer has the experience and court-craft to out wit Del Potro who will have to rely on his serve and powerful forehand to keep him in the game.

Federer has won the last 25 matches he has played on hard courts.

I’m looking  forward to watching the match and  expect Federer to take it in 3 sets.

Update: A commanding performance from Federer. He never really looked like losing.

Federer won 6-1, 6-4.

San Hose Final 23:00

Raonic v Istomin:

These two have never played.

There have been several players who have found unexpected form in 2012 and one of them is most certainly Denis Istomin. He reached the semi final in Sydney beating Gasquet on the way. To get to this final he has beaten Querrey who plays his best tennis in America, Roddick, another American who admittedly is carrying an injury and Benneteau who has been in great form for many months.

Raonic got some revenge for Harrison’s win over him in their previous meeting. Both men served well in the first set and it went as expected to a tie break. Raonic took the tie break and also took control of the second set.

Raonic is currently at 1.35 on Betfair.  think there is a very good chance that the first set is close so we will see a higher price. Raonic’s  serve has been at  a level that its probably enough to win him the match but his grounnd strokes yesterday were also of a high standard.

I didn’t see Istomin’s match as it was in the early hours but when he is in form as he obviously is he takes the ball very early and rushes his opponennt into errors. In order to hurt Raonic he needs to get hold of the Canadian’s serve to move into a rally. He won’t get a lot of chances to break and will have to take the few he gets.

Has to be a Raonic win for me but I want a higher price before getting involved . 1.60 at leat.

Update: Raonic won 7-6, 6-2.

Almagro v Berlocq:

1st seed takes on 5th seed. They have played just once before which was in May last year. That was also on clay and a very tight match went Almagro’s way in 3 sets.

Berlocq is extremely consistent on clay and is able to win Challenger events almost at will. Howver when facing a top 20 player on clay he has lost the last 9 ( going back to 2006) and won only 2 from 10 against top 50 players.

Berlocq was in South America last week where he lost in the final to Monaco in Chile. Almagro had to travel from Spain where he was on Davis Cup duty and had a tough 3 setter with Hanescu yesterday. His first game after a long trip is often a below par one and I think that will have prepared him for the real test today.

Both players are perhaps more likely to start slowly than race away with the first set so I expect the opening set to be a nervy one with neither player wanting to make mistakes. From the second set onwards I think they will open up.

Almagro feels too low at 1.42 but I really can’t decide whether laying is a good idea. I am more likely to watch the opening games and hope to get a back bet in a bit higher. Nothing under 1.60 is likely to have me clicking that mouse.

I have to go with Almagro but we could see 3 sets.

Update: A little easier than expected for Almagro. 6-3, 6-2.

Brazil Open 23:00

L Mayer v Bellucci:

Argentinian against Brazilian in Brazil. I wonder if the crowd will make much noise for this one……

Mayer is the form player and has won 7 in a row in Brazil. He has also won 8 in a row when starting as underdog. In his 2 matches so far this week he has beaten Ferrero and also Chardy who knocked him out of the VTR open a couple of weeks ago.

Prior to this week Bellucci’s form has been pretty poor. He won his opening set against an apparently injured Mello 6-0 but lost the second 1-6 with some terrible errors. In the third it was Mello’s turn to make the mistakes and Bellucci came through to win.

The crowd may be a big factor if Bellucci goes behind as they will do all they can to intimidate Mayer. Mayer will get quite a few cheap points if his serve continues to be effective.

This is a tough one to predict. Form player against home player. I am leaning slightly towards Mayer for the win but I think things could get messy!

Update: Mayer took the first set. In the second bellucci broke twice to level the match. The thirrd set saw Mayer break in the very first game and he held onto that break until he served for the match at 5-4. He was broken and Bellucci won the next 2 games.

Bellucci won 3-6, 6-2, 7-5.

I want to spend time helping those who have joined the service rather than people who just turn up for what they can get for free without contributing anything.

There are a limited number of non members who will be welcome and you’ll have to email me for info if you think you might be one of them.

Update: For anyone not using the members chatroom here is an alternative

http://centralchat.net/chat/Tradingchat

Enjoy

Starace v Berlocq:

Starace leads the head to heads 8-0!  In Fact Berlocq has only taken 1 set in those 8 matches.

Berlocq’s game has improved a great deal since their last match in 2010. In cont5rast Starace is sliding lower from around 45 12 months ago to his current 76.

Both are clay specialists and Starace has won 6 of his last 7 on clay. Berlocq has won 20 of his last 21 on the dirt!

Starace didn’t look like a world beater in the last round against Capdeville. He needed a third set to secure the win and looked below par.

The head to heads could be a tough mental mountain to climb for Berlocq but he is currently the better player. Doubts have to enter your head when you have failed every time to beat the guy on the other side of the net. He starts at 1.55 on Betfair and there has to be a chance of that moving higher during the first set.

I think I will have a small back at the start of the match but look to add to the position if the price goes up during the set. A break point should see us approaching evens which has to be value on the Argentinian.

Update: Starace started stronger and probably due to the head to head record the market was soon strongly in his favour. He took the opening set but Berlocq was much the stronger player for the rest of the match and won in 3 sets.

Berlocq won 3-6, 6-2, 6-3.

Brazil Open 23:00

Nalbandian v Simon:

What on Earth is Gilles Simon doing in Brazil??

They have never met on clay but their head to heads are 1-1. Both matches were 3 setters.

Nalbandian was surprised at the support he received from the Brazilian crowd but I guess they dislike the French more than the Argies!

Simon actually doesn’t have a bad record on clay. He lost to Ferrer in the Davis Cup ( as you’d expect) in September but won the title in Hamburg in July beating Almagro in the final. His game isn’t really suited to the surface though as he likes to use his opponent’s pace to counter attack.  He will have more time on this court to get to the ball and I expect a lot of very long rallies.

Nalbandian loves to get the crowd involved and I think he will feed off that support. The Brazilian’s certainly make a lot of noise when their favourite  wins a point and its almost silence when the other guy wins one.

Nalbandian is the better clay courter for me and his price of 1.84 has to be a back.

Update: I didn’t follow the match but Nalbandian won 6-3, 6-2.

As if its not enough that I have to deal with ignorant knobs who think that they can have a go and think I won’t say anything back and people who haven’t the first idea what they are talking about criticising how I deal with it, I got a Skype message from Darren Hall at Bet72 to let me know about some twat who is blantantly selling my guide for himself. Hasn’t even changed the name.

Url removed: I have just been informed that the download link contains malware. People who download it deserve everything they get

Both the  blogger site and the youtube video have been reported.

If I get through the day without burying someone it will be an achievement. At least the trading went well!

Message to self: Don’t let the fuckers grind you down………

Benesova v Halep:

Benesova has made a great start to 2012. She made the quarter finals in Brisbane and the 4th round of the Oz Open losing to eventual champion Azarenka. In the first round here she made a slow start but came back strongly to win in 3 sets.

Halep started 2012 well with a quarter final in Hobart but has first round losses at the Oz Open and also last week in Paris. This tournament has started pretty well for her though as she knocked out Hantuchova in a third set tie break.

I think the win over Hantuchova had more to do with Dani being tired from her tournament win last week than with Halep playing a great match. Her serve was poor and Benesova will be more likely to take advantage of weak second serves.

Should be comfortable for Benesova.  1.57 not a bad price but would like a little higher. ideally she gets broken early with plenty of time to come back.

Brazil Open 18:00

Ferrero v L Mayer:

Ferrero isn’t in top form at the moment but really should have enough to beat Mayer.

Former world number 1 Ferrero’s best surface is clay. He has won 4 of his last 5 clay court matches. Mayer has lost 4 of his last 5 matches over all although has won his last 6 when starting as underdog.

Ferrero played Davis Cup at the weekend which was also on clay. He needed 5 sets to beat Kukishkin which gives an indication of his form but as he plays more matches that will improve.

I expect this to be fairly tight but Ferrero’s class and experience will bring him through, perhaps in 3 sets.