Post edited 10:17 pm – April 10, 2011 by PDonald

Commands are issued by typing them in the main chat or in a private chat with TennisBot. Use the main chat window when you think others will find it interesting too and use the private chat window when you don't want to bother others or you want to use the bot a lot.

Currently there are two commands supported.

!pl to see price predictions

Syntax
!pl <first letters of player last name>

For example:
!pl kohlschreiber
!pl kohlschr
!pl kohl
!pl koh

<pdonald> !pl gol
<TennisBot> Player: Andrey Golubev 1.7 *0-15 0-1 1-0
<TennisBot> Andrey Golubev wins next: game 1.55 set 1
<TennisBot> Philipp Kohlschreiber wins next: game 2.08 set 2.49
<TennisBot> Backing Andrey Golubev 9 vs -18 ticks, Andrey Golubev will win this game 59.64% of the time. Value: -1.733
<TennisBot> Laying Andrey Golubev 17 vs -10 ticks, Andrey Golubev will win this game 59.64% of the time. Value: 1.071

Player: Andrey Golubev 1.7 *0-15 0-1 1-0
Andrey Golubev is the full name of the player
1.7 is the current best back price on Betfair
*0-15 0-1 1-0 is the current score on the official scoreboard
* indicates who is serving, in this case Golubev
0-15 means Golubev is serving and has gone love-fifteen down
(30-40* would mean Kohlschreiber is serving and is leading in this service game 40 to 30)
0-1 is game score in the current set, Golubev has won 0 games in this set, Kohlschreiber has won 1
1-0 is the set score, Golubev has won 1 set and Kohlschreiber has won 0 sets

Andrey Golubev wins next: game 1.55 set 1

TennisBot predicts that if Golubev wins this service game his price will be 1.55
If he wins this set, his price will be 1 because if he wins this set, he will have won the match (i.e. you have a 100% chance of winning a match when you already have won it)

Philipp Kohlschreiber wins next: game 2.08 set 2.49

TennisBot predicts that if Kohlschreiber wins this game (i.e. breaks Golubev) Andrey Golubev's price will be 2.08
If Kohlschreiber wins this set (it will be 1 set all), Andrey Golubev's price will be 2.49.

Note that all these prices are for Golubev. If you want to see Kohlschreiber's prices, do !pl kohl

You can read more about how price predictions are calculated in another thread called 'Alternative to BetAngel Tennis Trader' in the Tennis section.

Backing Andrey Golubev 9 vs -18 ticks, Andrey Golubev will win this game 59.64% of the time. Value: -1.733

TennisBot calculates the probablity of Golubev winning this service game using match stats (on this surface, in 2010) from TennisInsight and combines it with Kohlschreiber's ability to return serves and then compares it with ATP averages as described in this paper http://strategicgames.com.au/journal.pdf So the bot works out the probability of Golubev winning a service game and then calculates the probability of him winning this service game at 0-15. And it is 59.64%

If you back Golubev at 1.7 and TennisBot's predictions are correct and you can lay him at 1.55 when he wins this game, you will be looking at a profit of 9 ticks when hedged, including comission. (1.7-1.55)/1.55 * 100 * 0.95 = 9.19355 ~ 9 ticks. If you back Golubev at 1.7 and he is broken and you can lay him 2.08 then you will be looking at a loss of 18 ticks. (1.7-2.08)/2.08 * 100 = -18.2692 ~ -18 ticks.

If Golubev wins this game 59.64% of the time then if you do this 100 times with 1 pound stakes, you will lose 1.733 pounds in the long term. 9.19355 * 0.5964 + (-18.2692 * (1 – 0.5964)) = -1.89042 which is about -1.733 (the bot doesn't round prices and probablities that's why the result in my calculations here is different). If the calculated profit is a positive number then, assuming price predictions are correct and stats are right, you would win money in the long term and it is called value.

Lay value is calculated in the same way.

!st to see player stats

!st <full name> (, <surface> (, <year>))
!st rafael nadal
!st rafael nadal, clay
!st rafael nadal, clay, 2010

<TennisBot> Rafael Nadal wins 68.601% service points, 42.764% return points, 88.325% service games (calculated)

All stats are taken from either TennisInsight or OnCourt.

+1. I was to ask the same question.

Instructions above are precise and right on the money. Worked out well for me.

Awesome input!. Thank you.