Muguruza 1.48, Ostapenko 3.00
Muguruza has won both their previous matches. They last met in May this year on the clay in Rome. She won in 3 sets. Both their matches were on clay.
Overall results are strong for both players with them both winning around 73% of matches in 2017. Ostapenko has a higher ROI. On hard courts Muguruza has a real edge in the stats.
There were signs of mental tiredness in Ostapenko’s last 2 matches. She won the title last week in Seoul. She started slowly against Strycova and was 3-0 down in the opening set. In the last round against Puig she started strongly but lost all focus in the second set. She has had two tough 3 set matches so far and I expect her to tire physically today.
Muguruza was solid in her opening match and beat Tsurenko in 2 sets but struggled on serve a little against Linette yesterday. She lost the second set 1-6 and in a tight 3rd set she has a break of serve and served for the match. She was broken but immediately broke the Linette serve for the match.
Wait for 1.75 on Muguruza