10th February 2015

ATP Brazil Open, 14:30 – Bagnis v Delbonis

They have met 3 times and all of them were on clay. Delbonis won their last 2 meetings which were in 2013 and leads the head to heads 2-1.

Bagnis lost in the final round of qualifying to De Bakker but he probably knew he had the lucky loser spot in the main draw. he plays almost exclusively on clay and reached the semi finals of a Challenger in Columbia a couple of weeks ago.

Delbonis plays his best tennis on clay. he hasn’t won a match in 2015 although did take Kyrgios to 5 sets at the Australian Open. He is the defending champion this week and i don’t think he will have too many problems with Bagnis once he finds his clay legs.

Delbonis starts at 1.46 which considering he has lost 9 of his last 10 matches and this is his first competitive match on clay for a while I think we will see that  trade higher in the early games.

I will wait to back him higher and a Bagnis break would be perfect.

 

 

 

ATP Memphis Open, 18:45 – Harrison v Jaziri

Harrison’s ranking is fixed firmly in reverse and has been for the past 12 months. He has come through the qualifying rounds this week with 3 solid wins. He has better stats over the last 6 months than Jaziri.

Jaziri reached the third round in Melbourne. In his only match since then he won the first set against Istomin before retiring.

Americans usually do well on home soil but Harrison doesn’t have a great record in Memphis. He has never been beyond the second round. This is only the second time he has made it through the qualifying rounds. the other time he lost his first round match although he met John Isner that day.

If Jaziri is over his injury he should be able to keep this close but Harrison needs to well in America to get some points back and he has been serving well. He starts at 1.61 which is a little low. Backing the server at the start isn’t a bad plan and if I get the chance to back Harrison above 1.80 I will take it.

 

 

ATP Brazil Open, 21:30 – Berlocq v Pella

They have only completed one match in the past and that was on clay back in 2009. Berlocq won that day but it has little relevance to today.

Since Berlocq won the title in a Brazilian Challenger on clay in September he has won just 1 match. He doesn’t have a win yet in 2015.

Pella is a clay courter. He has come through some tough matches in qualification and needed 3 sets in his last 2  including a third set tie break win over Haider Maurer in the second round.

Berlocq’s clay court record is excellent and I would expect him to make the transition from hard court to clay court pretty easily. His confidence can’t be too good right now though and Pella will have his chances.

Berlocq stars at 1.62 and as with the Delbonis match i think we will get a higher price to back him during the opening games. I can see this going 3 sets and wouldn’t want to be still involved in a third set. Berlocq’s pedigree should see him safely through but a win for Pella would not be a huge shock.

 

 

 

 

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2 thoughts on “10th February 2015”

  1. Nice and very interesting picks. Your strategy for each pick is quite intelligent. How do I get more?

    1. Thanks. I post on here almost every day. Tradeshark tennis members can email me for advice on any match that isn’t on the blog.

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