12 Oct 2013 — Saturday’s Semis

The last time Tsonga beat Djokovic was in the 2011 Australian Open. Since then he hasn’t taken a set in their hard court matches.

Djokovic didn’t look at his best against Monfils especially in the early games. Credit must be given to Monfils though for fighting for every point.

Tsonga has played fairly typical Tsonga tennis. he ha served well most of the time and has come up with huge impressive looking passes  but also suffers from poor shot selection at times. Against Djokovic he seems to feel that he needs to go for his shots a lot more and doesn’t believe he can out-rally the Serb. He gets a few that hit the line of course but when Djokovic cranks up the pressure the errors increase from Jo.

Another slow start would be great to get a better price to back Djokovic. The trouble is that so much has to happen to move the price enough as traders assume Djokovic  will come back.

Update: Easy win for Djokovic 6-2, 7-5.

 

Nadal and Del Potro have played just once in the last 2 years. That was in the Indian Wells final in March which Nadal won in 3 sets.

Nadal’s level has dropped a little since he won the US Open which showed itself most in the recent final against Djokovic. Perhaps regaining the number 1 spot means he has allowed himself to relax just a bit. He has been less convincing than normal although has managed too lift his game when needed. Tie breaks against Berlocq and Wawrinka showed his vulnerability.

Del Potro was suffering with a fever earlier in he week and it looked like giving Kohlschreiber the chance to beat him. However we have seen time and time again how he able to compete when his body isn’t 100%. Tommy Haas withdrawing with a back injury gave Del Potro extra time for his health to improve as Almagro found out to his cost in the quarter final.

Against anyone other than Djokovic Nadal will be able to lift his game if needed but I can see Del Potro taking a set. His best chance is the opening set. He has taken set 1 in their last 2 matches.

I will look to lay Nadal when he has break point as Del Potro has saved 77% of break points this week. He also saved the same percentage of break points in their last match.

Back Nadal if he loses the opening set.

Update: Excellent match from Del Potro but so many break points wasted by Nadal.

Del Potro won 6-2, 6-4.

 

Suarez Navarro beat Kerber in their only previous match in August in a 3rd set tie break. Since then Kerber’s game has been working much better.

Carla demolished Flipkins in their quarter final although it has to be said Flipkens was awful right from the start.

Kerber asked for a wild card so she had the chance to get enough point to reach the  year end finals. By reaching the semi finals she has secured her place in Istanbul.

The worry for Kerber backers is the chance of her tanking this match now that the year end goal has been achieved. Personally I don’t think she will as there is plenty of time to recover and I don’t see she has much to gain from not gong for the title.

Kerber to win in 2 sets.

Update: Easy for Kerber 6-2, 6-0.

 

Voegele was 2-5 down in the third set against Stephens but kept fighting and took the next 5 games. Stephens has a long way to go before she is as good as she thinks she is.

Ivanovic had a fairly straight forward win over Cibulkova to secure her place in the semi final.

Voegele has had more break points this week but Ivanovic has converted a greater percentage of hers. Ivanovic has arguably faced stronger opposition this week and is ye to drop a set.

I expect 2 sets again today.

Update: Ivanovic won 6-4, 6-4.

 

    Trading Guide

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