13 Oct 2013 – Shanghai and Linz Finals

Djokovic v Del Potro

Del Potro looked in control against Nadal from the very first game. The giant Argentinian is playing as well as we have seen from him but he will need to step up a little more to take the title.

Djokovic didn’t allow Tsonga into their semi final and as expected the Frenchman was going for too much too early in rallies. Coming to the net is asking for trouble against Djokovic unless the approach shot is top notch. He loves a target.

Djokovic and Del Potro have played 7 times in the last 2 seasons and Djokovic won 5 of them. Del Potro took him to 5 sets at Wimbledon and beat him in Indian Wells so it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that he can come out on top.

Djokovic has won 8 of his last 10 finals. Del Potro has reached 4 finals this season ( I don’t count exhibition events) and he won 3 of them losing out to Nadal in 3 sets in Indian Wells.

I have to favour Djokovic to win this but I don’t expect it to be straight forward. Nadal created a lot of break chances yesterday but wasn’t able to take them. Djokovic is more likely to take similar chances and I think he will come through in 2 tight sets or perhaps 3.

Update: Great match! Djokovic won 6-1, 3-6, 7-6.

 

Ivanovic v Kerber

This is a tricky match to predict. Ivanovic’s stats are better over the year but over the last 3 months Kerber has improved a great deal. However comparing performances against the same players shows a remarkable advantage to Ivanovic.

If we look at performance in finals then Ivanovic hasn’t been in many recently and lost her last one in 2012. She won the 3 before that. Kerber has lost her last 4 finals. Three of those she was favourite in and the 4th she was 2.06 . The only main tour finals she has won has been as underdog and she always loses as favourite! This suggests a real mental block that she needs to play with no pressure of expectation. Those last 4 finals were lost in 3 sets.

Mainly due to her final record I think Kerber will go down today. If she can get past her mental block she has been playing the better tennis but I am favouring the greater experience that Ivanovic has in finals.

 

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