13th July 2014

WTA Gastein, 12:30 – Petkovic v Rogers

Shelby Rogers has made it to her first WTA final with a very impressive run which has seen her beat Errani, Giorgi and Suarez Navarro. Not only has she beaten them but she beat them all in straight sets. She has saved a very high percentage of the break points she has faced.

Petkovic goes into this final as a strong favourite but her route to the final hasn’t been plain sailing. Her first round match was very close and in the semi final Grace Min made a much better start and went a double break up. Petkovic got one of the breaks back but Min took the set.

It would be a surprise if Rogers were to win this match but she has already managed 3 surprise wins. Petkovic starts at 1.31 and is almost certainly going to trade higher.

Petkovic is more able to attack  and put pressure on the Rogers serve. This match is hers to win or lose and it will take a below par match from her if she isn’t to lift the trophy.

I will wait for Rogers to take an early break lead before backing Petkovic.


Bucharest Open, 15:30 – Halep v Vinci

Halep leads the head to heads 3-2 and she has won both their meetings since Halep’s breakthrough midway through 2013.

Vinci has an excellent record in finals and has won her last 7.

Halep is the home player and the crowd have been trying to get involved in matches involving their players this week. Vinci is experienced enough for that not to bother her.

I was a little surprised to see Halep taken to 3 sets by Niculescu. That gives me hope that Vinci can do the same and that we have a chance of a higher entry on Halep.

1.18 is no price to back her against Vinci. None of their previous matches have gone to 3 sets. I think the sets will be close.


ATP Newport, 19:00Hewitt v Karlovic

Hewitt has reached the final for the third consecutive season. He was unsuccessful in both the previous finals and doesn’t have an easy task today.

I wasn’t sure that Karlovic would reach the final. His semi final opponent Sam Groth had been serving bombs all week and had performed superbly in his tie breaks. Karlovic is one of the weakest returners yet he was able to get a break in each set.

However now that Karlovic is in the final he is in with a great chance to win the title. he leads the head to heads with Hewitt 4-1 with 3 of his wins coming on grass. The last time Hewitt was able to take a set from Karlovic on grass was 2003 when Hewitt was ranked 2nd in the world.

Given that Hewitt’s serve hasn’t been at its best up to this stage Karlovic must be value as underdog. Karlovic starts at 2.06 .

It won’t be an entertaining match. I’ll probably back Karlovic from the start but with reduced stake  as there probably won’t be much opportunity to trade the position. one break will move the market a great deal. Karlovic hasn’t been broken all week.

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