15th November 2014 – ATP World Tour Finals – Semi Finals

14:00 – Djokovic v Nishikori

head to heads are 2-2 (plus a walkover to Djokovic in Miami this season). In 2014 they are 1-1. Djokovic won at the Paris Masters and Nishikori won at the US Open.

Djokovic has looked impressive this week. His game looks amazingly solid. Berdych didn’t manage to break him. In fact he didn’t even get a break point. Cilic and Wawrinka were able to break just once each.

Nishikori has done well to reach the semi finals in his first visit to the Tour Finals. He performed well against Murray and Ferrer but was disappointing in his match with Federer. Will he be able to cope with Djokovic who is playing at an exceptional level?

Djokovic starts at 1.11 which pretty much makes our minds up for us if we are looking for a trade. It is hard to see anyone beating Djokovic this week but at that price it has to be worth a lay. Whilst Djokovic has played well his opponents have all been poor. Let’s see if Nishikori can keep his head and make good shot choices. Maybe he can force the price up and we get a profitable trade.

Straight sets seems the most likely outcome but Nishikori might surprise us and take it to a third.

 

 

 

20:00 – Federer v Wawrinka

The first match looked like it was going to be another boring one sided affair. Even though Nishikori was battered in the first and third sets he was the only person to take a set from Djokovic this week.

This evening’s match is an all Swiss encounter. Stan wasn’t able to hang on to the Swiss number 1 spot for long and won’t find  it easy to take anything from this match.

The head to heads are 16-2 to Federer. They are 1-1 in 2014 but haven’t played on a hard court this season. The bad news for Stan is that indoor hard courts are probably where Federer plays his best tennis.

Federer hasn’t been faultless this week but the poor shots have been greatly outnumbered by the moments of brilliance.

Wawrinka almost slipped up against Cilic and was broken at 4-5 in the second set. He then went a break behind in the third set but was able to turn it around. It is very unlikely that he will get a chance to recover from any lapses in concentration tonight.

It just wouldn’t feel right if we didn’t have a Djokovic v Federer final tomorrow. They have been head and shoulders above the rest this week. The others have all been a bit flakey.  (head and shoulders, flakey, get it?)

Federer starts at 1.18 which is understandable but offers no value. Maybe Stan can hit the ground running and give us a better price.

Federer 2-0 is 1.53 . Not very tempting.

Federer first set 6-1 is being offered at 9.00 . It seems to be a favourite score this week.

 

 

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