15th Sep 2014

ATP Moselle Open (Metz), 17:00 – Mathieu v Becker

They have met 3 times. All of them were on hard courts ( the last 2 were on indoor hard courts) and Mathieu leads the head to heads 2-1. Their only meeting in the last 2 season was in a Challenger last September. Mathieu won in 3 sets.

Since Wimbledon Mathieu has lost 5 times. Four of those were as pre match favourite. the other was to Djokovic. He hasn’t played for two weeks and his last match was in a Challenger in France where he lost in straight sets to young German Zverev.

Becker reached the final in  s-Hertogenbosch in June and also the semi finals in Atlanta in July. other than those weeks though his form has been inconsistent. He lost in the qualifying rounds in Toronto to 347th ranked Fabrice Martin as a 1.17 favourite. His last match was at the US Open where he lost in the first round in straight sets to Gojowczyk.

The market’s not sure about this one. Mathieu starts as slight favourite at 1.88.

Indoor hard courts should suit both players. Becker reached the quarter finals last season. Mathieu retired in his second round match with Sam Querrey after losing the first set.

Both of them have serves that can make them difficult to break down. It just depends who can hold their game together best on the day. Mathieu will have the crowd behind him but Becker’s number over the last 3 months have been much stronger on the main tour so I will be favouring him.

Points against serve especially in the first few games will move the market a great deal as traders won’t be expecting many breaks. I will put part stake on Becker at the start and will add the that if he goes 0 30 down on serve in the first few games.

Don’t go mad with the stakes on this one.

 

 

 

ATP Moselle Open (Metz), 19:00 – Roger-Vasselin v Muller

Head to heads are 4-2 to Roger-Vasselin although their only match in the last 2 seasons saw Muller retire after losing the first set.

Their only hard court match on the main ATP tour was at the 2011 US Open and Muller won in straight sets.

Roger-Vasselin had a reasonable grass season but then suffered a knee injury. He was out for 2 weeks and lost his first match back against Wild Card Coric as a 1.30 favourite. Since then he hasn’t been past a second round but has had tough draws in Tsonga, Fognini, Janowicz and Robredo.

His best effort at Metz is his second round last season. He lost to Tsonga.

Muller reached the semi finals in 2011 beating Paire and Gasquet. He reached the second round in 2012 and didn’t play there in 2013.

Muller has had a pretty good season winning five Challenger titles. On the main tour he has only played the slams and also Dusseldorf. His only wins came at Wimbledon where he made the second round as a qualifier. He lost to Federer.

This should be a tight match and won’t be an easy one for Roger-Vasselin as he doesn’t have a good record against big servers. He does have home advantage which most French players respond well to.

I have to give a slight edge to Muller. i don’t see many breaks of serve in this match and I will probably back a few service games to build up some profit for later in the match. We have a decent chance of 3 sets and will lay the first set winner.

 

    Trading Guide