Just 3 matches being played tonight and in the morning. Heather Watson’s final with Brengle in Hobart and Troicki’s match with Kukushkin have been covered for the Shark Tips service. Suggested bets and the reasoning for them have been sent to subscribers. You can sign up for the tips using the links in the menu bar at the top of this page.
That leaves the third final.
ATP Heineken Open, Auckland, 01:30 – Mannarino v Vesely
Vesely has a slightly better stats on serve on hard courts over the past 6 months. Mannarino’s numbers on return of serve are stronger.
Both players have been serving well this week. Veseley has been broken just twice in his main draw matches. Mannarino was broken 4 times.
Mannarino was pushed very close in the semi final by Pouille. He eventually won 7-5 in the third set. Vesely won in two close sets over Anderson.
Both men are in their first ATP final. They have never played so will need a few games to work each other out. Add that fact to the nerves that are unavoidable and we could see a scrappy first set. Vesely is the bigger server and if he can go onto automatic pilot from the line I’d expect him to take the opening set.
Vesely starts at 1.65 which feel a little low. 1.85 is a fairer price for him in this situation. Mannarino has played some inspired tennis at times this week.
If I can get around 1.80 on Vesely in the early games I will back him. I think we have a good chance of seeing 3 sets. It is difficult to pick the outright winner as it depends who handles the nervy latter stages the best.