16th May 2014

The Suarez Navarro v Ivanovic and Jankovic v Radwanksa matches have been covered for the Shark Tips service.

 

WTA Rome, 11:00Errani has never beaten Li Na in 6 attempts. She has only managed to win a single set which was at the US Open in 2008.

Li starts at 1.27 which, given their history seems fair. However Li, like so many players recently, has struggled to perform well for whole matches.

Li’s power game should be too strong for Errani but if she does have one of her sets where nothing works for her Errani could take this to a third set.

Anything over 1.40 starts to be value for me and I will top up if Errani should take the first set or takes a double break lead.

 

ATP Rome, 11:00Raonic and Chardy messed up both my Shark Tips selections yesterday. Tsonga had a 5-2 lead in the first set tie break but managed to throw it away. Dodig was poor but I expected the usual post-Fed let down from Chardy. The Frenchman continued his strong form and was just too good.

Raonic has won all 4 of his matches with Chardy including last week in Madrid. The courts are much slower in Rome.

Both men have been holding most of their service games but in the first set against Tsonga Raonic was not holding easily.

So often Chardy goes on a good run but then fails towards the end of the week. I expect Raonic to come through this one but 1.38 is way too low IF Chardy starts well. He did have treatment for a foot problem early in the Dodig match but he didn’t seem too bothered by it during the match.

I’ll take Raonic when he is a break behind. Chardy has to crack sometime soon.

 

ATP Rome, 13;00Haas doesn’t seem to be having the shoulder problems that he had in recent matches. He has won three matches so far with a 3 set win over Wawrinka in the last round.

Dimitrov came back from a set down against Berdych.  He lost his opening set of the week against Roger Vasselin and just scraped past Karlovic 7-6, 6-4.

Head to heads are 1-1 with Haas winning their most recent meeting last season. If his shoulder continues to hold up well this should be a very competitive match.

I am going with Dimitrov for the win but we should see a higher price than his SP of 1.48 . Back Dimitrov when an early break behind.

 

ATP Rome, 15:00Djokovic is playing his first tournament since his wrist injury. Stepanek offered little resistance but Kohlschreiber made him work a lot harder. The German took the opening set last night but has nothing left for sets 2 and 3.

Ferrer hasn’t had too many problems so far this week and even Gulbis was despatched easily.

Djokovic leads the head to heads 14-5 and has won their last 8 meetings. However with Djokovic still needing to improve confidence in his wrist and on the slower clay in Rome Ferrer could have a shot today.

The market reflects this as 1.38 is the highest price we have seen on the Serb against Ferrer since their Madrid match in 2011.

I think Ferrer at least takes this to 3 sets. Djokovic’s match fitness will be a little lower than normal and he will have a real fight on his hands.

 

ATP Rome, 20:30 – The last time Nadal and Murray was on October 2011. Murray won that day but it was on a hard court. He has failed to take a set from Nadal on clay in 3 attempts.

In last week’s final in Madrid Nadal was being outplayed by Nishikori. He was perhaps a little fortunate that the Japanese player’s body can’t keep up with his will to win. This week Nadal has been taken to 3 sets in every round. Maybe players are working out how to hurt him, even on clay.

Normally I would give Murray much hope on clay as it is easily his weakest surface. However if Youzhny and Simon can take sets from him you have to think that Murray can do the same.

    Trading Guide