17th March 2015

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ATP BNP Paribas Open, 21:15 – Raonic v Dolgopolov

Dolgopolov leads the head to heads 1-0 . That was in the quarter finals of last year’s Indian Wells tournament. He won in straight sets.

Raonic got some revenge over Bolelli in the last round. He served extremely well and didn’t face a single breakpoint.

Dolgopolov is also playing well this week and must be enjoying being over his injury. He only faced 2 breakpoints against Giraldo and saved both of them. He won 92% of his first serve points.

This should be tight. Dolgopolov handled Raonic’s serve well last year. I am not expecting many breaks. Raonic is too low but I think he takes this. His all round game is stronger than last year.

Raonic starts around 1.49 which has drifted a little from this morning.

 

 

 

ATP BNP Paribas Open, 23:00 – Robredo v Dimitrov

Head to heads are  1-1. Their most recent meeting was in  2014 on a hard court and Dimitrov won in 3 sets. Robredo won on clay in 2013.

The 3 month stats slightly favour Dimitrov.

Neither player has really found their form this year. Dimitrov came close to going out in the last round when Kyrgios served for the match. That was the only time Dimitrov broke serve.

Robredo had a tough 3 set win over Golubev. Both players served well. Robredo saved all 5 of the break points he faced.

Dimitrov should take this but if Robredo continues to serve well he can keep this close. If the opening set is tight with few break chances my money is on Robredo to break down towards the end of the set.

No value on Dimitrov at SP.  Wait for a better price on him. He starts around 1.38 .

 

 

WTA BNP Paribas Open, 00:30 – Jankovic v Bencic

Bencic leads the head to heads 1-0. That was in 2014 on a hard court and she won in 2 sets.

The 3 month stats favour Jankovic.

Nine double faults for Jankovic against Keys and she faced 16 break points. (saved 11 of them). She returned well against Keys’ second serve and also had 16 break points breaking Keys 6 times.

Bencic beat Wozniacki in 2 sets! She served exceptionally well facing just 2 break points and being broken once. Woznicki has had problems on serve this season and those issues continued in this match.  She  only won 34% of her second serve points.

Bencic has 3 wins over top 10 players. All were on hard courts and all in 2 sets. My gut feeling is Bencic will take this but with them starting around evens the value is on JJ. Lay JJ if she takes a break lead in the first set.

 

 

 

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