Some decent price kicking around on today’s card. Now we just need to work out which way the matches go!
Yesterday saw what was for me one of the most blatant tanks of the season. Dolgopolov has lost his first match in Moscow for the past 2 seasons. The previous two had also been as strong favourite. I had a feeling he was going to do the same this time and I was proved right. Kukushkin had never beaten him before although their sets had been close. After watching a couple of games I was confident that my hunch was correct. Dolgopolov was exaggerating his follow through on certain shots to push the ball long. Kukushkin was given a break in the very first game. That was enough to give him the set. In the second set Kukushkin almost messed up the script when he was broken in the 4th game but miraculously Dolgopolov was broken to 15 in the very next game with 2 returns skilfully guided beyond the lines.
First up in Moscow we have Stosur v Ivanovic. they start at evens which is fair enough as this should be close.
Stosur leads the head to heads 3-2 but only 1 of their matches was in the last year. That match was in fact at this tournament and Stosur won in 3 sets.
Serve stats favour the Aussie and return stats favour Ivanovic but I will be favouring Stosur in this one. She has looked very solid this week and i still haven’t forgotten Ivanovic wasting a boat load of chances against Kerber recently.
Both are capable of making a lot of unforced errors but I think Stosur’s serve will prove to be the deciding factor.
Stosur to win in 3.
Update: Stosur won 7-5, 6-4.
Rosol starts as slight favourite against Bemelmans in Vienna but I think he will find it tough to break the Belgian’s serve.
In the last 3 months Bemelmans has held his serve 90% of the time, has better return stats than Rosol and has converted a higher percentage of break points. He also creates more break points than Rosol.
I think we have the wrong favourite here 😉
Update: Not quite! Rosol won 6-3, 1-6, 6-3.
Fognini has played Haase just once before. That was on the clay in Monte Carlo last year and Haase won in straight sets.
Fognini has moved up 40 places in the rankings since that match and starts as favourite today at 1.64 .
Haase played well yesterday to beat Pospisil but he had to save a lot of break points and perhaps should have lost in straight sets ( I’m just bitter and twisted as I had tipped Pospisil!). He cannot afford to give Fognini as many chances today.
I am favouring Fognini for this one but it could easily go to 3 sets. It is really down to how much he wants it. if his level drops then Haas eis more than capable of taking this match.
Voegele beat Stephens in Linz last week. She came back from a 2-5 deficit twice in that match. In the opening set Stephens managed to take it in a tie break but when faced with the same scoreline in the deciding set Voegele fought hard and took the next 5 games to win the match.
Stephens’ starting price is understandably higher this week at 1.46 and having been able to get herself into a strong position in 2 of their 3 sets last week I think she gets a little revenge this time. If she comes out with a little attitude then she could get the job done quickly but I think it is more likely she falls into the same complacency as the last match. She will get into the lead and relax thinking she has won.
I expect her to trade higher than SP but she will come through for the win. Laying her an early break ahead could work well.