18th August 2014

ATP Winston Salem, 17:00 – Goffin v Melzer

Goffin’s price has drifted from around 1.50 this morning to 1.65 . He has won 22 matches in a row although most of those were against Challenger opposition. All those wins came on clay apart from the last 2 which were in the qualifying rounds of this tournament.  He came through against 2 weak opponents.

Melzer has enough talent to win this match but as he gets older his body can’t keep up with that talent. he is very difficult to predict.

Melzer reached the semi finals on the grass in Holland but since then he has lost in the first round of all his 4 tournaments.

I think we will see a higher price on Goffin and I will wait to back Goffin above evens. Melzer may well get himself into a strong position but he so often throws it away.



WTA Connecticut Open, 17:00 – Muguruza v Errani

Errani has struggled in all 3 of her recent hard court matches. Two of them were against Lisicki and the other was a 3 set  win over Wickmayer.

She starts as underdog against Muguruza who reached the quarter finals in Stanford losing to Kerber and was unfortunate to get Sharapova in the second round in Montreal but managed to take her to 3 sets. Her loss to Beck last week as a 1.40 favourite wasn’t too impressive.

This is a tough one to call. Errani is a better hard court player than she has shown recently. Her new service action doesn’t seem to have become second nature yet.

If Muguruza is to win she probably has to do it in straight sets as her record against top players in third sets is poor.

Expect lots of breaks in this match. I will be laying Errani if she goes a break ahead. I will also lay Muguruza if she is serving for a set that has been close.

I am favouring Muguruza to get herself into a position to win but I will be trading out before she tries to serve it out.



WTA Connecticut Open, 19:00 – Stosur v Nara

Stosur has accepted a wild card entry so you would imagine she won’t be tanking the first match. She starts at 1.42.

Stosur pushed Serena Williams close last week losing in two tie break sets.

Nara reached the final in Washington beating Keys, Mladenovic and Erakovic along the way. She narrowly lost in the final 6-4 in the third set to Kuznetsova.

As so often is the case with Stosur this one is hers to win or lose. if she plays her own style at a reasonable standard she should win comfortably.



WTA Connecticut Open, 21:00 – Flipkens v Doi

Doi has come through three qualifying rounds beating two players higher ranked than herself.

Three of Flipkens’ last 4 losses were to Halep, Kerber and Kuznetsova so she hasn’t been lucky with her draws. She has never won a match in New Haven.

Flipkens starts at 1.60 but their 3 month stats are very close and if anything Doi comes out slightly ahead.

I am going with Doi for the win and will look to lay Flipkens below 1.40 .


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