18th July 2014

WTA Swedish Open, 11:00 – Both Scheepers and  Arruabarrena needed 3 sets to get through the last round. I can see today’s match going the distance too.

Scheepers reached the quarter finals last week in Gastein. She has only been past the second round in one other tournament this season which was her semi final in Bogota.

Arruabarrena reached the quarter finals in Bogota and the quarter final in Bucharest last week. This is also only her third week beyond the second round.

They have both given up a lot of break points this week with Scheepers being slightly worse. In the last round especially they were wasting most of their break point opportunities with Scheepers converting 9 of 19 and  Arruabarrena taking  6 of 15.  Arruabarrena was better in her first round match when she won 7 of her 9 break chances.

There should be plenty of swings in this one and I am favouring  Arruabarrena so I will be waiting for a lay on Scheepers below 1.50 .

 

WTA Swedish Open, 12:00 – If Hogenkamp had been able to serve then Kanepi could have been in trouble yesterday. her own serve was broken 3 times. She also wasn’t particularly impressive in the first round against Larsson and would have lost if Larsson hadn’t choked..

Barthel needed 3 sets to beat Dabrowski. It wasn’t exactly a serving clinic with Barthel having 21 break points against her and Dabrowski having 24. They both converted just 38% of their break chances.

Kanepi starts at 1.48 and I will look to lay her below 1.30 in the early games and ideally if she is broken. Expect a scrappy match. 3 sets would be no surprise.

 

ATP Hamburg, 17:00Rosol beat Kohlschreiber last week in Stuttgart. Kohlschreiber was a 1.31 favourite that day. Today he is 1.52 (and drifting).

Rosol reached the final last week and usually doesn’t stick around long the week after a final appearance. I have been waiting for him to lose this week but he is still there.

Kohlschreiber didn’t play this tournament last year but reached the quarter final in 2012. Purely from a value point of view Rosol has to be the pick. Both sets last week were close (7-5, 7-6) and Kohlschreiber must be a lay today if only for a trade.

 

ATP Bogota, 22:00Tomic beat Falla last night in straight sets. Falla had reached the final last season.

Pospisil had a hard fought victory over Kuznetsov. He served extremely well and saved all 3 of the break points he faced.

Tomic starts at 1.60 which looks a little short. 1.80 would be a fairer price. This will be a serve dominated match and I am favouring the Aussie but I will need at least 1.80 before backing him.

 

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