18th March 2015

The have been a few surprise results over the last couple of days. A few more today would be good as the lowest priced favourite is around 1.37 .

 

ATP BNP Paribas Open, 18:00 – Lopez v Nishikori

Nishikori leads the head to heads 3-2. He has won their last 2 meetings. The most recent was in 2014 on clay which he won in 2 sets and their last match on hard courts was 2013 (2 sets).

Lopez has had two 3 setters so far. He served well against Cuevas. He saved 6 of 7 breakpoints that he  faced. He has equalled his 4th round finish of last season so the pressure is off him a little.

Nishikori’s serve was not as sharp an normal in last match v Verdasco. He lost the first set in a tie break. He had also struggled with his serve in the first set of his win over Harrison.

Expect close sets in this one and Lopez could take it to a deciding set if Nishikori hasn’t sorted his serve out. Nishikori to win but wait for a better entry price.

 

 

ATP BNP Paribas Open, 21:30 – Raonic v Robredo

Raonic leads the head to heads 2-0. Both matches were on clay. Their most recent meeting was in 2014 and was won in 2 sets.

Raonic’s serve is pretty near his best at the moment. He faced 2 breakpoints against Dolgopolov and saved both of them. Robredo’s 1st serve percentage was high at 74% against Dimitrov. He only faced 2 breakpoints and was broken both times. Dimitrov won more points in that match. Robredo wasn’t great on return of serve and he won’t get many chances today.

The price is too low but I can understand why. Raonic will be tough to break.

Raonic starts around 1.27 which offers zero value. Wait for a better price before backing him.

 

 

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