After a tough spell of negative variance for the Shark Tips Service I made a minor tweak to the selection process. The rest of the month saw 14 of 18 selections being winners. Whilst negative and positive variance is just part of betting and tennis betting in particular I am confident that the tweak is a significant one. Let’s see what August brings 🙂
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ATP Kitzbuhel Cup, 11:00 – Monaco and Seppi played last week in an odd match that ended with Seppi winning 1-6, 6-0, 7-6.
That day Seppi was playing his first match after Wimbledon and he frequently has difficulty switching surfaces. Monaco was starting on a run of improved form and was enjoying being injury free.
Seppi has won both their meetings on clay this season with the other being a straight sets win at the French Open.
In their last meeting Monaco had a break lead in the third set and also in the tie break but he couldn’t finish.
This should be another close one with a few swings. Monaco starts at 1.65 and is very likely to trade above evens. I will wait for 2.20 before backing him. I expect him to take a tight match.
WTA Citi Open, 18:00 – This is Nara’s second quarter final in 3 weeks. Mladenovic has a semi final and 2 quarter finals in the last 3 weeks so we have two players performing near their best.
They have played just once before but that was at the end of 2012. Mladenovic won 7-5 in the third set.
All the stats for the last 3 months favour Mladenovic. Both players have been quite tight with the break points allowed to their opponents this week. They have also been wasting a lot of their own break chances.
This should be a close match and 3 sets look likely but I am going with Mladenovic for the win. I want to wait until she is a break behind though which will see her above evens.
WTA Bank of the West Classic, 20:00 – Kerber didn’t have an easy night. She looked to be in trouble against Vandeweghe when she was broken in the 7th game. However she broke back in the very next game and eventually took the set in a tie break. Now she was in control but it didn’t last long. She didn’t win a game in set 2 and they went into a decider. The home crowd thought they were going to see their player knock out the 3rd seed. Their hopes were quickly dashed as Kerber took a 4-0 lead and it was all over.
Muguruza has had to win 2 matches to reach this stage. Last year’s finalist Cibulkova was despatched in 3 sets and Hantuchova kept both sets close but wasn’t quite good enough.
They played last season in Indian Wells and Kerber won in 2 close sets.
Muguruza has given 21 break points to her opponents this week. Kerber gave Vandeweghe just 7 break point chances last night despite hitting 10 double faults and not managing a single ace. Vandeweghe hit 13 aces.
I am going with Kerber. I think she will get more chances against the Muguruza serve than she did last night and I’d expect her to have sorted her own serve out before this match.
Kerber starts at 1.81 and I will have part stake on her from the start. I intend adding more if she goes an early break behind.