1st October 2014

ATP Japan Open, 06:00 – Golubev v Sock

Sock had an excellent win over Dolgopolov in the last round. Dolgopolov wasn’t 100% as he is returning after injury but Sock did his job well.

Golubev has lost his way a little recently. Before this week he has lost in the first round in 4 of his last 5 tournaments.  His stats in the first round this week were solid. He saved all 8 of the break points that Herbert had and his first serve percentage and points won on his first serve were good.

The fast courts in Japan favour Sock’s big serve and I don’t think Golubev will find it easy to break him.

Sock starts at 1.43 which doesn’t really offer any value. We can get a better price on him without a break. Even 0-30 on his serve will give us a price above 1.60 which starts to offer value.

 

 

ATP Japan Open, 07:00 – Simon v Muller

Simon dodged a bullet yesterday. Bautista Agut won the first set and then had several match points in set 2. Simon held on and took the set in a tie break before Bautista Agut retired early in set 3.

Muller looked fairly comfortable against Delbonis winning in straight sets.

They have played just once before but that was 10 years ago.

Muller has been having a great deal of success on the Challanger hard courts but has been unfortunate with his opponents on the main tour. Losses against Tsonga and Gasquet were not unexpected but he will have been disappointed to lose to Mathieu at the US Open in 4 sets.

Simon has never been beyond the second round at this tournament. Muller reached the quarter finals once but that was back in 2004.

I am going with Muller to take this one. As with Sock the faster courts will work in his favour. Simon starts at 1.60. A lay on Simon below 1.40 would be nice but I will see how the opening games go.

 

 

WTA China Open, 12:30 – Suarez Navarro v Sharapova

I was disappointed on Tuesday when Sharapova didn’t start slowly. The nearest we got to it was 0-30 in the first game which pushed her price up but I was waiting for a break so didn’t take it.

Suarez Navarro made a quick start against Pennetta and easily took the opening set. She looked comfortable in set 2 but fell apart and Pennetta was able to level the match before Carla cruised through the decider.

Suarez Navarro won their last meeting which in Montreal at the beginning of August. Hopefully she can put Sharapova under pressure again and give us a better price to back her than the 1.30 SP. Sharapova looked very good against Svitolina so I won’t be laying but will wait for a better price.

 

 

ATP China Open, 14:30 – Isner v Robredo

Robredo had a tough week last week. he had championship points against Murray but lost the set and then the deciding set. In his first set this week it looked like he may be ready for a rest but having lost that set to Seppi he found his second wind and came back to win in 3.

Isner leads the head to heads 2-1 though Robredo’s win was in an exhibition event.  He reached the quarter finals last season. In his first match he easily beat Giraldo in straight sets.

Robredo is known for his ability to remain competitive even after a very tough schedule but I think he will fall to Isner today. Robredo gave Seppi a lot of break point opportunities in his last match and if Isner plays at the level he did in the last round he won’t give Robredo many chances and will be able to convert break more break points than Seppi.

Isner starts at 1.58 which I see as being a decent price on him. I expect him to be more consistent today.

 

 

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