We saw a few examples yesterday of how weak minded some players can be. They can be the stronger player in the first set and have excellent chances to take it but after they fail to do so their brains turn to mush and they struggle to win a single game in the second set. Being the coach of a mid ranked player must be a nightmare!
We have a lot of matches due to start at 3pm UK time and a decent percentage of those involved come under the category of fruitloop.
15:00 – Bedene v Wang
Jimmy Wang has actually been in decent form recently. he reached the final of a Challenger event in February on hard courts.
Bedene isn’t having the best of seasons although it has to be said he hasn’t had much luck with the opponents he has been drawn against. Montanes, Fognini and Granollers on clay!
This is his first hard court tournament for a while. He has had a couple of qualifications rounds to get used to conditions though.
Bedene starts at 1.64 which feels too low. I can understand why he is favourite but if Wang has a good day especially from the service line I think this could be close.
A lay of Bedene below 1.40 would be a decent place to start as I can see Wang taking a set.
Update: Bedene won 1-6, 6-2, 6-4.
15:00 – Pella v Sock
Sock should be too strong for Pella on a hard court. However his price of 1.36 is too low. If we can get over 1.60 it looks like value to me.
Update: Sock won 6-3, 6-4.
17:00 – Kuznetsova v Vekic
They have never played before. Kuznetsova starts as a 1.65 favourite. if she was to play her best tennis that would be a generous price but I’m not sure even she knows if she can produce that these days. She pushed Kvitova to 3 sets in Indian Wells. She gave 17 break points to her opponent that day despite a high first serve percentage.
Vekic certainly rates herself. She can talk the talk but when it comes to walking the walk she often stumbles. There is nothing wrong with self belief though and if she ever gets as good as she thinks she is the rest better watch out.
Vekic came through a tricky first round match against Date Krumm who wasn’t 100% fit having taken an MTO in her previous match. She has come through the qualification rounds without dropping a set and could cause Kuznetsova some problems today.
This one is really for Kuznetsova to win or lose. If she can serve well and limit the break point chances then she should come through for the win. However if her serve deserts her then her ground strokes usually follow suit.
I am looking to back Kuznetsova when she is a break behind. This will give me a chance to see how she is performing on the day.
Update: Vekic did get the first break and served for the set at 5-4. She was broken but took the set in the tie break.
Vekic won 7-6, 7-5.
19:00 – Klahn v Garcia Lopez
American Bradley Klahn has a big serve. Don’t they all? He has won a couple of hard court Challenger events recently but I am surprised to see him as favourite against Garcia Lopez. He opened up around 1.75 although they are nearer to evens now. Is there some news about Garcia Lopez that we don’t know yet?
Klahn has only has one main tour win this season ( not counting qualifying rounds ). Garcia Lopez has spent all his time since the Australian Open in clay court tournaments. After a quarter final in Chile he has had 3 straight first round exits, all as favourite.
This is one to watch a few games of first. All the value has been taken from the Garcia Lopez market.
I am likely to be trying to back Klahn well above evens. He should be getting a few cheap points on serve especially if Lopez is below par but he usually throws in a bad game or two.
Update: Garcia Lopez won 1-6, 6-1, 6-4.