22nd August 2014 – Semi Finals

I will post my quarter final predictions for the US Open either later tonight or tomorrow.

 

WTA Connecticut Open, 18:00 – Rybarikova v Giorgi

In her quarter final Giorgi hit 19 double faults. Whilst I am not complaining as she allowed Muguruza to take it to 3 sets which was good for the Shark Tips subscribers I don’t see her as a 1.46 favourite.

Rybarikova served a lot more consistently but despite that was bageled in the second set by Riske. Once the set was lost she was probably conserving energy for the deciding set.

Giorgi has the more aggressive style but that also makes it more risky. If she repeats her double fault tally from yesterday I’m not sure she will survive.

I think this will be a close match with Giorgi having to work harder for her holds. However if they go into a third set her fitting spirit will be the deciding factor.

I expect Giorgi’s price to trade a fair bit higher but also think she will come through in the end.

 

 

ATP Winston Salem Open, 20:00 – Rosol v Lu

They have played  once before which was last September on an indoor hard court.  Lu won in straight sets.

Lu has been very impressive this week. He hasn’t dropped a set and has played with controlled aggression.

Rosol should be well rested as Isner pulled out with a foot injury before their quarter final. In his first match Harrison took the first set but then retired early in set 2 so he has only played one full match so far.

Rosol’s serve could keep him in the match. He has been winning a decent proportion of points on his first serve although his first serve percentage hasn’t been good.

Lu should take a tight match and we may see 3 sets. I will wait for a higher price before backing him. He starts at 1.58 .

 

 

ATP Winston Salem Open, 23:30 – Janowicz v Querrey

Before his quarter final I felt Janowicz was a little fortunate to still be in the tournament. However yesterday he did what the previous 25 people had been unable to do and beat Goffin. For some reason he was able to lift his game and played at a high level throughout the whole match.

Querrey has had some tight sets this week. He has held his nerve so far although Garcia Lopez took the first set yesterday in a tie break. That nerve will be tested tonight if Janowicz is able to repeat yesterday’s form.

They have played once before which was won by Janowicz on clay last season.

Querrey is looking to go one stepree further than his semi final last year. I think he will come through in front of his home crowd but he will trade higher than his 1.71 SP.

 

 

WTA Connecticut Open, midnight – Stosur v Kvitova

I am surprised that Kvitova hasn’t learned from the past two visits to New Haven. last year she was in the final and the year before she won the title. Both years she ran out of energy at the US Open and didn’t go as far as she would have done if she had been better rested.

Kvitova started very slowly in her last match against Zahlavova Strycova but she turned it around to win in straight sets.

Stosur has played some good tennis this week but has been taken to three sets in two of her matches including the last one against Flipkens.

They haven’t played for 12 months but Kvitova leads the head to heads 5-1. Her leftie forehand can put real pressure on the Stosur backhand which is the Aussies weaker wing.

Kvitova starts at 1.43 . In a normal situation she would naturally be the strong favourite but they are extra unknown variables in this one. As Kvitova kept pushing to the final for the last two seasons we perhaps should expect her to do the same this time.

Stosur has been playing well enough to keep this close though so I will wait before entering. I want a higher entry on Kvitova but it will be with reduced stakes. No one accuses tennis players of being smart so I am going with her to push for the win.

 

    Trading Guide

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