ATP Valencia Open, 12:00 – Lajovic v Andujar
Two clay courters playing each other on a hard court. Andujar stats at 1.53 and I think that price has been pushed lower than normal due to his win over Berdych. However Berdych really wasn’t interested in this tournament but as it is a mandatory event he had to attend. It isn’t mandatory to play well.
Lajovic is no pushover on hard courts. He beat Sousa in the last round and pushed Seppi close in Moscow. He has a better hard court record than Andujar if we include qualifying rounds but for only main draw matches Andujar edges it. They both have a losing record though.
I am going with Andujar but I want a price nearer 1.80 before I am interested.
ATP Valencia Open, 13:00 – Dolgopolov v Chardy
Dolgopolov reached the final in 2012 but didn’t play in Valencia last season. His form recently has been well below his best as he has been struggling with injury. He was fortunate in the last round to meet a disinterested Simon who was saving himself for next week in Paris.
Today he meets another Frenchman but this time one with points to defend. Chardy made the quarter finals in 2013. he lost in the first round in Paris last year so has more to gain from working hard this week.
Chardy leads the head to heads 4-3 and has won 2 of their 3 meetings this season. Dolgopolov won their most recent match which was in February.
I am siding with Chardy for this one. Dolgopolov will have gained some confidence from his win over Simon but if Chardy can get his nose in front that confidence can soon disappear.
Dolgopolov starts at 1.76 but I would prefer a price below 1.50 to lay him.
ATP Swiss Indoors Basel, 19:00 – Pospisil v Dimitrov
They have only played once before. That was 2 years ago and Dimitrov won in 3 sets. Both players have improved their rankings significantly since then.
Dimitrov starts at 1.73 which seems a little strange. Pospisil didn’t play a good match against Nieminen and there was nothing in that match to push Dimitrov’s price to that level.
Dimitrov started very badly against Zverev in the last round losing the set 6-2.
Dimitrov has reached the quarter finals for the last 2 years so any “news” about him must relate to his health.
I will put part stake on him at the start and manage it from there. If he really wants to at least equal his quarter final from last year he will fight.