24 Sep 2013 – Worth getting up at 3am?

Ok taking into consideration that it is now 10:23pm as I start to write this post, what are the chances of me being up at 3am? Cibulkova will probably win easily against Dellaqua.  No one in their right mind trades Cirstea when half asleep.

Stephens and Bouchard are covered for Shark Tips so for my sress levels it’s advisable that I don’t trade it.

Just when I have almost convinced myself that there is really no need to be up at 3am I see Errani v Kuznetsova. Bollox.

Kuznetsova leads the head to heads 5-1 with just 2 meetings in the last 2 seasons. Both were in 2012 with Errani winning at the French Open in May and Kuznetsova winning on the hard courts in Auckland. Both the matches were won in 2 sets.

Kuznetsova starts as slight favourite at 1.90 although Errani leads all the 3 months stats except service games held.

Kuznetsova had a nice warm up match against Ormaechea in the first round. that will have let her get used to the courts.

On faster courts Errani is at a disadvantage as her serve is no weapon at all. She doesn’t have any bad losses recently but she has been beaten by decent hard courters. Makarova, Vinci and Pennetta are all good quality hard court players without being top notch and were able to beat Errani in straight sets. I would class Kuznetsova as being as good as those 3 players as long as she doesn’t have a mental lapse and I will be favouring her.

I think we will see 3 sets though so I will wait for a value entry point such as laying Errani a break ahead or maybe if she takes the first set.

Update: Kuznetsova won 6-4, 6-4.

 

Keys really shouldn’t have beaten Suarez Navarro in the last round. their first set was of an awful standard with more breaks than holds. Navarro took the set after Keys had served for it and the Spaniard took a 5-2 lead in the second set. In the next game she thought she had won the match but the ball was called in from Keys. Navarro lost her focus completely and lost the next 5 games. Keys easily took the third set.

Beasily defeated qualifier Osaki in the last round. The Chinese player hasn’t been on her top form for a while but her defensive ability and her consistency could drive Keys mad in this match. One thing in Key’s favour is that she was able to bring out big serves including a good number of aces on big points. In one game she was break point down and recovered with 3 aces in a row.

I think I have to favour Keys with her serve on the fast courts and she will come through as long as she can keep her head when Peng just keeps getting the ball back and forcing her to hit just one more ball.

3 sets.

Update: Nope! 2 sets. Keys won 7-5, 6-2.

 

Halep finally came through against a tired Pavlyuchenkova on Monday but she was less than impressive. She had real problems on serve and didn’t get her first hold until the second set. Towards the end of the 3 set match she also seemed to be having trouble with a possible calf injury.

Petkovic was pretty bad last week against Schiavone although to be fair Schiavone had a pretty good week in the end.  She perhaps wasn’t many people’s favourite to beat Vesnina in the last round but she did so in 3 sets. The key stats for me in that match were Petkovic’s numbers from the service line. She hit 68% of first serves in winning 64% of points with that first serve. Also she saved 10 of the 15 break points she faced.

Given her performance in the first round Halep is far too short at 1.45 and will be a lay for me.

Update: The lay worked perfectly as Petkovic came back from an early break and came close to taking the set.

Halep won 7-6, 6-3.

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