I have had some great feedback about my interview on Betcast. If you missed the link yesterday have a listen at http://www.bettingwebsites.org/podcast/how-to-win-trading-tennis/
ATP Barcelona, 11:30 – Gabashvili in the quarter finals? Be honest, who expected that? If you had looked at the draw and seen that he was due to play Ferrer in the second round you’d have written his chances off completely. Yet he beat the world number 5 in straight sets.
Gulbis had a scare in the first set of his match with Montanes going a late break behind but coming back to take the set in a tie break. Unlike Ferrer he is playing well and I’d expect him to come through this one today.
Gabashvili actually has a 4-1 record over Gulbis but his wins, including 2 on clay, we between 2004 and 2008. They last played in Delray Beach in 2010 which Gulbis won.
Gulbis starts at 1.47 and I expect a similar set to the one with Montanes. Serve dominated with few break chances so I will be waiting for a higher price. A break point against either player is likely to move the market a lot.
ATP Barcelona, 13:30 – Cilic wrecked one of my Shark Tips selections yesterday when he beat Robredo in a third set tie break. His draw doesn’t get any easier today as he takes on Kei Nishikori.
Nishikori leads the head to heads 4-2. They haven’t met this season but Nishikori won both their 2013 meetings. They have never played on clay though.
Their stats on clay for the last 12 months favour the Japanese player and the gap between them is greater if we compare their performances against the same players.
Given all of the above I feel Nishikori is at a fair starting price of 1.63 .
Cilic’s first serve percentage against Robredo was poor at 52% . Robredo only managed to convert 1 of the 6 break points he had against the Cilic serve.
Nishikori also gave his opponent 6 break points but Golubev was able to take just 2 of them. Today’s match will be decided by small margins and break point conversion will be a huge factor. Nishikori converted a healthy 50% of his against Golubev.
If Cilic’s first serve percentage is as low as yesterday I would expect Nishikori to take advantage of the weaker second serves. I also expect him to make the most of the break chances he gets and will be backing him with part stake at the start. I will look to add to my position if Nishikori goes an early break behind.
WTA Marakech, 17:00 – It’s good to see Hercog back after her injury problems. She is an excellent clay court player and has been playing well this week.
She takes on Spaniard Torro Flor who she has never played before.
Torro Flor ended 2013 with 3 straight losses and started this season the same way with 4 consecutive losses. Then she found some form in Indian Wells beating Kerber in round 2. This week is the first time she has gone beyond the second round.
Hercog is at 1.60 but as Torro Flor has won both her matches in straight sets and her first round match was against Jovanovski who she had lost to in all their previous 3 meetings I think we need a better price on Hercog.
Ideally Torro Flor will take an early break lead so we get a better entry on Hercog.