26th February 2015

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Here is yesterday’s spreadsheet so you see what you get.  25feb2015ej

 

 

WTA Qatar Total Open, 15:30 – Kvitova v Suarez Navarro

Kvitova leads the head to heads 5-3. Suarez Navarro has won their last 2 meetings including last week in Dubai. Their last 2 meetings went to 3 sets.

The 6 month stats don’t favour either player. Stats against common opponents favour Kvitova.

Suarez Navarro somehow beat Pliskova yesterday. I thought Pliskova would be tired and would serve badly as her swerve in the previous round had been below its normal level. That wasn’t the case and she served really well!  Suarez Navarro was under a lot more pressure on serve and saved all 6 of the break points that  Pliskova had.

Kvitova somehow gave up a break lead to go a break behind against Jankovic. Jankovic was injured and retired in set 2. Kvitova’s 2nd serve was poor and she faced 7 break points (she saved 5 of them).

This looks like another 3 setter. Value is on Suarez Navarro. Lay Kvitova when she is  a break ahead.

 

 

 

ATP Abierto Mexicano Open, 21:00 – Anderson v Troicki

Troicki won their only previous match but that was in 2011.

Both have been in strong form in 2015. The 6 month stats favour Troicki but they are very close. He is a little further ahead when comparing matches against common opponents.

Anderson served well to beat Johnson but his second serve was getting hammered. Troicki’s 1st serve percentage could do with being higher but he won 68% of points on his second serve against Giraldo.

Troicki has the edge for me but this will be a tight match with very few breaks. Anderson’s price is way too low in what will be a serve dominated match.

 

 

 

WTA Abierto Mexicano Open , 23:30 – Larsson v Bacsinszky

Bacsinszky leads the head to heads 2-0. Their last meeting was in the Fed Cup earlier this month. She won in 2 sets.

Larsson is a machine at the moment! She reached the semis in harsh conditions last week and I expected her to be tired but she has won both her matches easily as underdog.

Bacsinszky has won 8 of her last 10 matches. She hasn’t looked comfortable this week though. I can see this one going to  3 sets. Tough to call the winner but Value is on Larsson as long as she doesn’t run out of energy.

Bacsinszky starts around 1.50

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