27th July 2014

WTA Baku,08:00 – Jovanovski v Svitolina 

Svitolina is the defending champion and has played well this week. She lost the first set to Schiavone yesterday but after Svitolina won the second set 6-1 Schiavone said to her coach that she couldn’t see how she was going to win the third.

Jovanovski fooled me yesterday by serving well from the start. She had started slowly from the service line in each of her previous rounds. This time she controlled the opening set but faded badly in the second set and the first half of set 3. Voegele traded as low as 1.11 in set 3 but couldn’t hold on to her set lead.

I think for mental toughness ( and particularly in this tournament ) Svitolina has a real edge. The 3 month stats are quite close but slightly favour Svitolina. The difference between the player’s stats is greater if we compare performances against the same opposition.

Svitolina starts at 1.54 which is too low. I would have her at 1.65 to 1.70 .

I will look to back her when an early break down but if I get 1.70 I will put part stake on there.

 

ATP Suisse Open, 10:30 – Monaco v Andujar

Monaco has had problems with injury in 2014 but seems to be getting back to his best. he made a slow start to the semi final but fought back. He also admitted to being nervous in set 2 as this was his first semi final of the year.  That natuarally means this will be his first final and there is a chance of nerves. In the last 3 seasons he has been in 7 finals and he won 5 of them.

Andujar has been in just one final in the last 3 seasons and that was in 2012 which he won. Of the 2 players I would say Andujar will be the one to suffer more with nerves due to the occasion.

Andujar beat Verdasco in the semi final. Verdasco was playing in a lot of pain and the market was expecting him to retire at any moment.  Despite that Verdasco was able to come back in the second set and take it in a tie break.

The starting prices are more or less right in my opinion butI will be waiting for a price above evens before backing him

 

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