27th May 2014

We have several matches carried over from yesterday due to the rain. Lets hope it is a little better today although a quick look online at the weather in Paris shows they are in the middle of a thunderstorm! Triffic. At least there’s some IPL T20 action today!

 

I’ll be glad when we get through these first round matches. The value pre match is almost nonexistent.

As I have already spent almost 3 hours going over the matches for the Shark Tips service ( www.sharktips.co.uk ) rather than go into too much detail I will look at which players I will be backing in play if we get a better price on them.

 

In the 10am matches Berlocq is way too low at 1.34 against Hewitt. The heavy conditions won’t help the Aussie but he should fight for a set or two at least. Berlocq doesn’t have a good record at Roland Garros but has been iin excellent form this season on the clay. Hopefully Hewitt takes the first set.

Giorgi reached the quarter finals last week in Strasbourg where she fell in 3 sets to Soler Espinosa. Jovanovski’s recent form has been less than spectacular although she is capable of turning it on when you least expect it. Giorgi has to be the pick here but not at 1.41. Will look at the price when she goes a break down but it should be around evens if it comes fairly early. If Jovanovski gets a late break I will wait to back Giorgi when she loses the first set.

Pereira should have too much for Kumkhum who played her first match on clay for 12 months last week in the Strasbourg qualies.

Pereira starts at 1.35 which is a fair price but if we’re going to get a higher entry it is likely to come in the first 2 or 3 games before Pereira gets into her stride.

 

I posted on the Wozniack v Cirstea match in yesterday’s blog. Wozniack had a leg injury but the rain delays may have done her a favour by giving her time to rest it. Cirstea doesn’t handle changes to schedules too well but they could have been pretty certain that they wouldn’t be playing yesterday. I still think Cirstea has a chance to halt her losing run today.

 

I can understand why Heather Watson is favourite against Zahlavova Strycova whose form is erratic at the best of times. However given that BZS reached the final of an ITF event on clay earlier this month which had a reasonable strength field, Heather’s SP of 1.35 is a very brave backing price.

Watson has come through 3 qualifying matches to get to the main draw. She won her last event which was an ITF clay court tournament a couple of weeks ago and I will be backing her when a break behind.

 

12:30Martic prefers hard courts and Svitolina will be too strong for her today. Given the unpredictability of women 1.28 is no price to be backing one. Over 1.50 and I’m in.

 

14:30Cabeza Candela and Pfizenmaier don’t have many wins between them recently. However if we look at Pizenmaier’s results her last 5 defeats all went to 3 sets including against Garcia last week in Nurnberg.

Pfizenmaier is rightly favourite and her SP of 1.62 isn’t the worst value of the day. I will have part stake ( a third ) on her from the start and will add to it if she goes behind in the first set.

 

16:30 – Since Mrs Melzer returned to the tour after  a 2 year break she has played 4 matches and lost them all in straight sets. However her more recent match which was last week in Nurnberg saw her lose in 2 tight sets to Svitolina. It’s only a matter of time until she gets close to her Benesova form.

Vandeweghe retired in Marrakech last month and this is her first match since then. She has never won a WTA main draw match on clay.

Melzer starts at 1.74 and this is one to monitor for the first few games. It might not go any higher but obviously I would prefer to be backing her above evens.

 

17:00Dominguez Lino can be a tricky opponent on clay but I expect Dellacqua to be able to put huge pressure on her weak serve. Dellacqua starts at 1.44 and an early Lino break should see a price approaching 1.90 .

 

 

    Trading Guide

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