3 Oct 2013 – Nishikori to get Ninja’d by Lopez

Zeballos knocked out Ryan Harrison in 3 sets which is a decent result for a clay courter.

Almagro’s serve must be on song as he won  his match with Becker in 2 tie break sets.

They have played once before which was in February on clay. Almagro won in straight sets. His SP of 1.25 offers no value so wait for 1.4 to 1.5 . I can’t see Almagro losing this. (famous last words).

Update: Almagro won 6-4, 6-2.

 

Petkovic has had 2 good wins over Azarenka and Kuznetsova. Both wins had as much to do with her opponent’s level dropping as it did with her own play although she played well for decent periods of both matches.

Safarova has been in great form for several weeks now and we have to expect that the wheels will come off at some point and it will be soon.

Petkovic leads he head to heads 3-1 and won their last 3 meetings but they haven’t played since 2011.

Projected hold for thsi match up favour Petkovic. Looking at stats for the last month show Safarova ha won 10 of her 11 matches and held serve more than 80% of the time. Petkovic has won 3 of her 5 matches an held serve 62% of the time. Their return stats are  similar but Petkovic converted a higher percentage of break points.

I think we see 3 sets in this one and there’s a chance that Safarova will be the one to run out of energy first. They start at evens and I’ll probably lay the first one to break. There will be a lot of swings in the price 🙂

Update: Laying the first to break worked well. They went to a third set tie break with Safarova won.

She won 6-4, 6-7, 7-6.

 

Kerber seems to have problems with Vinci. The Italian won their last 2 matches which were both on hard courts. Kerber’s form over the last couple of weeks is miles ahead of where she was when they last met and there’s no real reason for that to change for this match. Some players are a bad match up of styles and this seems to be the case here. It is probably Vinci’s consistency that gets under Kerber’s skin she goes for the big winners to end long rallies, a little like the Errani v Kvitova farce earlier today.

Given their history I think Kerber is too low at 1.45 and I will be waiting for a price nearer 1.70 to 1.80 in the early games.

Update: We got 1.5x in the first couple of games but Kerber was too strong.

Kerber won 6-2, 6-4.

 

Defending Champion Nishikori should have gone out of the tournament when Melzer served for the match. The Austrian traded sub 1.05 before being broken, losing the set and losing the third!

The next opponent for Nishikori is big serving Lopez who beat him in straight sets in August. Lopez’ first serve percentage is poor but when that serve finds its target he wins a high proportion of points on it.

If Nishikori makes as many errors as in his last match I’m not sure he has a chance. Losing a break to Lopez when he is serving well can mean the end of the set.

Nishikori is worth a lay from the start but better to try to get in below 1.25 to 1.30 .

I’m favouring Lopez to get the win.

Update: Despite being broke in his first 2 service games Lopez looked the stronger player. He wasn’t hitting his serve quite as crisply as normal though.

When they reached a tie break in the firsts et I though Lopez was favourite and by that time I had a free bet on him. He played a very poor tie break and didn’t win another game.

Nishikori won 7-6, 6-0.

 

 

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