So many matches!! It can be difficult to know how players will start the early part of the season although I often find that its the same players who hit the ground running even if they don’t always keep up their early momentum.
As there are matches available during more “normal” hours there’s a very good chance that the Australian/New Zealand events won’t have great liquidity. Traders don’t usually like to do night shifts if there are other options.
Until we find out who has prepared well and who has slacked off during the off season I suggest slightly reducing stakes for the first week or two.
In Auckland we have McHale as favourite against Muguruza.
McHale made an awful start to last season and apart from a semi final in Quebec in September she had a season that was best forgotten.
Muguruza didn’t set the tour alight but had a very respectable 2013. Some of her best results came on surfaces other than her favoured clay.
McHale starts at 1.61 which has to be too low. This should be more like evens and that’s being generous to McHale. She has an ideal game style for hard courts but I don’t expect her to make a fast start to the new season.
Value is on the Spaniard especially if we can get a lay on McHale below 1.45 in the early games.
Also in Auckland Jamie Hampton should have more than enough for Paszek but her SP of 1.30 isn’t too exciting. I’ll be waiting for above 1.50 .
At ATP Brisbane I quite fancy Benneteau’s chances against Matosevic.
Matosevic won their only previous meeting which was in Beijing in September this year. He won in 2 close sets including a first set tie break.
General stats seem to favour the Aussie but he has a poor record in Oz on the main ATP tour.
I’m looking to back Benneteau above evens.