30th July 2014

ATP Kitzbuhel Cup, 10:00Maximo Gonzalez had a superb win for the Shark Tips subscribers in the first round at 2.40 . Today he takes on Ramos and the market has reacted to his win. They start at evens.

Both players had to come through the qualifying rounds. Their main tour stats are very even but Gonzalez hasn’t played many main tour matches. If we include Challenger events we see he has won 69% of his matches in the last 12 months compared to 54% for Ramos.

They have played 3 times before with Gonzalez winning all of them including last month in the final of the Padova Challenger.

Ramos struggled in his first round match against 729th ranked Galovic and lost the opening set in a tie break.

I can see this one going to 3 sets. Value is on Gonzalez as slight underdog but it’s a tough one to call. As long as the player who loses the opening set has been able to put pressure on serve and at least had break points I will be laying the first set winner.

 

ATP Kitzbuhel Cup, 12:00Monaco has won both his previous matches with Nieminen and Nieminen won all 3 of their hard court matches ( 1 was on carpet ). So Monaco is rightly the favourite on the clay in Austria. He starts at 1.51 .

Monaco made a very strange start to his match yesterday losing the opening set 6-0 to Golubev. He came back to take the next 2 sets 6-2, 6-1.

Nieminen is certainly capable of pushing Monaco’s price higher. Another 6-0 set would be nice!

I am favouring Monaco here but won’t be backing at SP. I would love to back him above evens. He reached the final last season and won the  title in his previous visit although that was in 2007!

Have patience, we will get a much better back price on Monaco in the first set.

 

ATP Citi Open, 21:00Sam Querrey leads the head to heads with Nishikori and has won their last 3 meetings. The most recent was in 2012 when Querrey was a top 30 player.

Nishikori starts the match as a 1.45 favourite. This is his first match since Wimbledon.

Querrey played last week in Atlanta losing to Sela in the second round (what’s going on with Sela right now??). He beat Russell in the first round this week and served reasonably well with a first serve percentage of 60% and he hit 17 aces. He only gave Russell 2 break point chances and saved 1 of them.

Nishikori might take a few games to get going and I think we will see a better price on him in the first few games. I will wait for 1.70 or better. This won’t be an easy match against a big serving American with the crowd behind him but I think Nishikori’s class will show through.

 

WTA Citi Open 22:30Cirstea had some good results around this time last year. Her recent results have been poor with the exception of a third round at the French Open. She has been suffering with an injury which could explain that. She had what looked like a tricky first round match against Bertens but came through in 3 sets,

Jovanovski reached the final  last week in Baku. She started most of matches poorly and had to come from behind.  Her form in the first part of the season wasn’t good at all with just a quarter final in the second event in Hobart. However she started to get things together at Wimbledon reaching the third round.

Cirstea tanked her match in Baku so she could be fully fit and rested for the American hard court season. I would expect Jovanovski to have a degree of fatigue after her five matches last week. Three of those went to 3 sets. I am hoping Jovanovski can starts well for a change and that we get to lay her at around 1.60 .

Cirstea starts at 1.85

 

 

 

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