3rd June 2014

The site has been a little slow this morning but the hosting company are looking into it and it seems to be better now.

 

No real shocks yesterday although I thought Safarova would put up more of a fight against Kuznetsova.

Today we have just 4 matches although there are several Challengers on too for any of you addicts.

 

13:00Muguruza takes on Sharapova who is many people’s favourite to take the title.

They have only played once before which was in Rome last year. Sharapova won easily. Muguruza is almost 50 places higher in the rankings today than she was that day.

Sharapova is ahead on all the 3 month stats but they are quite close. Her SP of 1.23 seems crazy. Muguruza beat Serena in straight sets and whilst Serena was far from her best many players wouldn’t have been able to take advantage.

I think Sharapova will find a way as her experience of the big matches is clearly superior.

3 sets wouldn’t be a shock as long as Muguruza doesn’t freeze which she has had a habit of doing in important matches.

 

The Suarez Navarro v Bouchard match is one of my Shark Tips selections. I expect a tight match. It is a massive game for both players. They have struggled with the really big games but both have recently won their first WTA title.

 

Berdych v Gulbis is also a Shark Tips match.

Gulbis obviously beat Federer in the last round. He had a plan which was to pressure  the Federer backhand until it broke down. Surprisingly Federer wasn’t able to adapt and said after the match that he just couldn’t figure it out.

Berdych doesn’t have such a clear weakness so Gulbis will have a lot more to think about. Something else that will be on his mind is that if he wins today he will break into the top 10. Will that inspire him or tie his mind up in knots?

 

15:00Raonic has had 3 straight sets wins including in the last round against Granollers. His toughest test came in the third round against Simon. The canadian won 7-5 in the 5th set.

Djokovic has dropped just one set which was to Cilic in the third round. Not surprisingly it was a tie break.

Djokovic starts at 1.09 against another top 10 player. Despite the fact that Djokovic has won both their previous matches and has lost 6 of his last 7 matches when playing a top 10 opponent and has also lost 9 in a row when starting as underdog that starting price is too low.

Their last meeting was In Rome last month and went to 3 sets. Raonic took the first set in a tie break.

I will be laying from the start and ideally will switch to Djokovic when Raonic takes the first set.

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