These really early starts don’t leave much time for blog posts and my evenings are totally tied up at the moment with family stuff. I am in the members chat room every morning for anyone wanting my opinions on matches.
ATP Japan Open, 09:00 – Becker v Sock
They have played twice before with Sock winning each time. He starts as a 1.65 favourite but was close to leaving the tournament in the last round against Golubev.
Becker has had a comfortable week so far beating an injured Nieminen and local favourite Ito.
This will be one of those dull serve dominated matches. If we look at stats for just this week Becker comes out on top. He has faced more break points than Sock but has saved 84% of them.
Value is on Becker as it looks so close. I will look to lay Sock below 1.40
ATP China Open, 09:30 – Isner v Berdych
Another big serving affair. They have played three times in the last two seasons. Berdych won them all in straight sets.
Berdych starts at 1.41 . He is ahead on most of the significant stats this week. Isner is obviously close to him on serve but it is the return of serve where the difference will be.
His starting price doesn’t offer much value as Isner can always nick a tie break set. I will look to back Berdych at 0-30 which will give a decent spike in his price.