4th June 2014

13:00Errani certainly seems to have found her singles form again. She has lost 2 of her last 13 matches. She has played Petkovic twice before. Both times it was in Madrid. Errani won this year and Petkovic won in 2010.

Petkovic is ranked 29 but was a top 10 player 3 years ago. She is coming close to that form this season but her consistency lets her down.

Errani’s serve could be in danger today if Petkovic finds her range. However Errani’s success is not down to her performance from the service line.Once the ball is in play she is like Ferrer’s twin sister.

The market is being a little tight with an SP of 1.37 but I will be looking for an opportunity to get on her higher up the ladder. Any player  is capable of a slow start and the slower the start the better the potential value.

 

13:00Kuznetsova beat Halep the last time they played. That was in April this year in Stuttgart. Halep was having problems with her back but still manged to take a 5-2 lead in the opening set. She wasn’t able to close it out though.

Both players are in top form. I thought Kuznetsova would have had more problems with Safarova in the last round having  had real issues on serve in her long match with Kvitova.

This should be a good battle. Kuznetsova occasionally goes on good runs of form but then fades when you least expect it.

I keep reading how Halep has a poor record at Slams but since the huge improvement in her game she has had a 4th round at the US Open, a quarter final in Melbourne and now another quarter final. She isn’t scared or intimidated by the big matches.

I am going with Halep for the win but as ever want a better entry price than her SP of 1.49 . An early break for Kuznetsova would be perfect.

 

15:00Murray and Monfils haven’t played since 2010. They played twice that year on hard courts and won a match each.

Monfils will obviously have the crowd with him today as the home player and also the under dog. That won’t bother Murray.

We hear each year how Murray has been working to improve his clay form and this is really the first year that we have seen any evidence of that. He played a strong match recently against Nadal and continued his form in this tournament.

There are, as always, doubts over Monfils’ fitness. His 5 set match with Fognini wasn’t a high quality affair. Garcia Lopez finally showed his “usual” form in the 4th round after an exceptional recent record and Monfils needed just 3 sets to get the win.

I expect a good start from Monfils which is perfect to get us a better back price on Murray.

Murray in 4 sets.

 

15:00 – The last quarter final is a repeat of last year’s final. Nadal starts at 1.19 against Ferrer. Since that final which Nadal won in straight sets they have played 4 times. Ferrer won 3 of them.

There are concerns over Rafa’s back. He is playing down the injury but 1.19 backers are taking a huge risk.

They have met three times at Roland Garros and Ferrer is yet to win a set. Surely that changes today and Rafa has to be a lay for me. Nadal to win in 4 or 5 sets unless his back gets worse.

    Trading Guide

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