5 Oct 2013 – Almagro to keep the match close.

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Dodig has beaten Raonic in both main tour matches they have played. Raonic won in an exhibition event.

When they last played it was on the Eastbourne grass. Raonic had a nightmare grass season and was having real problems from the service line. That isn’t the case now and in the last month he has won all 7 matches with service holds running at 97%.

Dodig is having the season of his life. He is noticeably playing more aggressively and will break the top 30 from Monday.

Dodig’s service holds are running at 93% in the last month so we won’t get many breaks in this one but I favour Raonic to get the win. There’s no value at 1.40 though and I’ll wait for 1.60ish if he goes 0-30 down on serve.

Update: Raonic won 7-6, 6-1.

 

Being broken multiple times by John Isner isn’t a good reflection on your serve. Berdych will have to up his service game against Nadal as the Spaniard has won their last 15 meetings and is perhaps playing better than he ever has.

Good luck Tomas.

Update: Berdych retired in the first set. Nadal won 4-2(ret)

 

Almagro won the only time he played Del Potro. It was on a clay court and things will be a little different on a hard surface.

Their stats in the last month are quite similar but Del Potro edges them all except break points converted.

Almagro had an MTO in the third set against Nishikori but was still able to get the win. I think if this one goes to 3 sets then Del Potro has the better chance.

The Argentinian is better on return of serve and Almagro’s best chance will come in Del Potro’s crap service game that he usually slots into each set.

I think we will see two tight sets which may spill over to a third as there shouldn’t be many breaks.

Del Potro is way too low at 1.35.

Update: Del Potro won 7-6, 7-6.

 

Serena looked to be in total control against Wozniacki. She was a set and 4-0 up and seemed to switch off. Wozniacki pulled level but Serena finished the job off.

Radwanska got her revenge over Kerber for the defeat last month. She will have to play the match of her life to even get a set from Williams as the American’s focus intensifies as the final approaches.

I will probably try a lay on Williams below 1.10 because its the right thing to do. I will take a free bet on her if Radwanska is able to make  a match of it and push her price higher.

Update: Williams won 6-2, 6-2.

 

Gasquet started the week a little shakily and wasn’t great in the early games of his match with Tomic. He was much better against Ferrer and always looked to have the edge.

Now he faces Djokovic who himself had a poor match that went to 3 sets against Verdasco but was more intense against Querrey.

2007 was the last time Gasquet took a set from Djokovic. They have played 6 times since then. I think he genuinely has a chance to take a set in this one but it will require a drop in Djokovic’s level.

I don’t have much interest in this one unless Gasquet takes the opening set.

 

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