WTA Abierto Monterrey, 21:00 – Tsurenko v Bacsinszky
Bacsinszky leads the head to heads 1-0 (2015, hard court, 2 sets). The 6 month stats are very similar and if anything slightly favour Tsurenko. Against common opponents they are also very even but this time slightly favour Bacsinszky.
Tsurenko served well in the last round but Rogers was poor winning just 2 games. Tsurenko has played some decent tennis this season including a 3 setter with Kerber and a close 2 sets loss to Keys.
Bacsinszky won the title in Acapulco last week and had a really tough 3 setter with Wickmayer in the last round. She is the stronger player but fatigue will level this one out. This can easily go to 3 sets.
There is no value on Bacsinszky at SP. She will trade a fair bit higher. Lay her if she goes up an early break.
WTA Abierto Monterrey, 01:00 – Pavlyuchenkova v Larsson
Larsson leads the head to heads 2-0. Their most recent meeting was in 2013 on a hard court and she won in 2 sets. She won both their matches on hard courts in 2 sets.The 6 month stats favour Larsson.
Pavlyuchenkova hasn’t been in the best of form this year but has never lost a match at this venue. She won the title in each of her 3 previous visits (2013, 2011, 2010). Her second serve was very poor in the first round with just 38% of points won on it. She hit 11 double faults. There were 14 breaks of serve in that match!
Larsson is a Duracell bunny this year. When will she run out of energy? She reached the semi final in Rio and then a quarter final in Acapulco losing to the eventual champion both weeks. She had a solid win over Bertens in the first round but is yet another player with a terrible 2nd serve. Just 31% of points won.
Pavlyuchenkova clearly loves this tournament but I don’t know if that will be enough. She won’t give up her 100% record easily and I expect 3 sets but value must be on Larsson.