6th February 2015

Tie breaks killed all 3 tips yesterday. Nightmare! I still don’t know how Muller lost the second set tie break from 5-2 on his own serve. I needed Nieminen to take the second set tie break for the overs pick and Sela, having led for most of the opening set was broken and won just 1 point in the tie break. he pretty much gave up after that.  That’s tennis!

 

 

ATP Open Sud de France, 13:00 – Janowicz v Simon

Janowicz reached the semi finals last year losing to Gasquet in two tie breaks.

Simon usually makes at least the quarters although he bombed out in the second round last season to Gicquel.

Janowicz has had two potentially tricky opponents so far in Dustin Brown and Benoit Paire. Both took him to a third set.

Simon has played just one match so far as he is the second seed and had a bye in the first round. he played well to beat Roger Vasselin in straight sets.

These two have only met once which was also on a French Indoor court. Janowicz won in straight sets in 2012.

Simon should be slightly fresher than Janowicz as the Pole has spent significantly more time on court. I think if Simon brings his A game today he will edge a very tight match but if he is below his best Janowicz could take advantage. The Pole has been serve pretty well and won’t be easily broken.

Simon starts at 1.58 and I will wait before getting involved. I will be surprised if we don’t see him trade a fair bit higher than that. Prematch I am favouring Simon to progress to the semis.

 

 

 

ATP Zagreb Open, 16:00 – Baghdatis v Youzhny

Youzhny leads the head to heads 4-2 although they haven’t played since 2010. He has won their last 3 meetings with the last 2 (2009, 2010) being on indoor hard courts. Only 1 of their previous matches did not have a tie break.

Baghdatis wasn’t have much success in his opening set with Karlovic which he lost 6-3. However he managed to take the next 2 sets to tie breaks which he won. He has started the season well. When he was regularly in top form he would usually start the season well which always suggested his pre season routine was sound.

His tournaments so far have brought a final in a Challenger and a third round finish in Melbourne.

Youzhny doesn’t usually make a strong start to the season and this year has been no exception. He lost to Basilashvili in the first round in Doha and was unfortunate to draw Nadal in the first round at the Australian Open. His first match this week was less than impressive. He lost the second set to Kavcic 6-1 before taking a tight third set. His second round was more convincing with a 6-2, 6-1 win over Stakhovsky.

Baghdatis actually starts as a 1.72 favourite for this one but I think evens would be a fairer price. Admittedly we have seen just 1 solid match from the Russian but I am looking forward to this one as they are both players that I enjoy watching.

I will wait for Youzhny to trade below 1.70 before laying him. I favour Baggy for the win but not below evens.

 

 

ATP Ecuador Open, 22:15 – Verdasco v Lorenzi

Verdasco has made a reasonable start to the year.  He hasn’t been lucky with his draws though meeting Ferrer in the second round in Doha and Djokovic in the third round in Melbourne.

His first match this week was a tight 2 setter with Gerard Melzer (7-6, 6-4).

Lorenzi hit a patch of excellent form last season. His successes were mainly on the Challenger clay courts. This season first round losses in Doha and Auckland were followed by a second round in Melbourne. He beat Dolgopolov in straight sets in the first round but Dolgopolov was carrying an injury. He had retired from the final of an exhibition event earlier in the month.

Verdasco is rightly the favourite but it IS Verdasco so 1.40 doesn’t feel like much value. I will wait for a better entry price on him. An early Lorenzi break would be nice .

 

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