7 Oct – Thin pickings for value hunters

There are a few qualification matches to be finished on Monday which reduces the main draw matches available. Not usually a huge issue but the first round isn’t packed with value.

 

Lopez should be a good call against Nieminen. Nieminen doesn’t have a great record in China and lost in the first round last year.he lost to Kevin Anderson in straight sets.

Lopez trails the head to heads 7-3 and Nieminen has won all 4 of their matches on hard courts. They haven’t played on a hard court  in the last 2 seasons. Lopez has won 3 of their 3 matches since 2012.

A concern over Lopez is his second set against Nishikori which he lost 6-0 having been arguably the better player in the first set but losing it in a tie break. Lopez didn’t look to be feeling 100% which could  explain set 2.

I will probably look to lay Lopez if he goes a break ahead.

 

Bouchard should be too strong for Lepchenko but her starting price of 1.36 offers no value. If Lepchenko can find her serve for a few games she could push that price up to a more realistic level. 1.60 would be nice.

 

Tomic managed almost a whole decent set against Gasquet before the Frenchman stopped missing everything. Today he plays Chardy who served well in Tokyo and won’t give him an easy match.

They have played just once before which was at the 2011 Australian Open. Tomic won in 3 sets.

Over the last 12 months Chardy’s overall stats are slightly better although reducing the time period to 3 months shows Tomic edging it.

I think we will see tight sets and 3 sets wouldn’t be a surprise. I’d favour Tomic in a third set.

Tomic starts at 1.55 which is too low. I’ll wait for 1.80 before even thinking about backing him.

 

A typhoon in Shanghai is making play on the uncovered courts unlikely.

 

Barthel starts at around 1.60 against Svitolina. Barthel is so hard to predict pre match at the moment. She can either come out serving strongly or can fail to win a service game.

Svitolina and her chavvy shriek have raced up the rankings this season but she has been having back problems in the last couple of weeks.

Barthel’s poor form and Svitolina’s injury should ensure we get a very swingy match. I’ll be looking for a low lay on either player.

 

Schiavone has shown some excellent form recently and gave Serena some problems in their match. She starts at 1.53 against Karolina Pliskova.

Pliskova’s serve is her best hope today and I think we will see a higher price on Schiavone. If she starts well and gets an early break I will lay (Schiavone) as she can always find a way to break herself.

Should be a close match.

    Trading Guide