Montpellier: Gasquet v Monfils
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It should be a close one and I can see 3 sets
Zagreb: Haas v Cilic
Cilic is defending champion having beaten Melzer in last year’s final. He has had a reasonably straight forward route to the final. He has done just enough in his 4 matches with each set being won by the difference of a single break. I thought Dodig would have given him more problems than he did but was dispatched 7-5, 6-4.
Haas didn’t start the season well and wasn’t fully fit. He lost his first set of the week to Becker but that seemed to kick start his season. His serve has been fairly solid but he hasn’t had much joy on his return of serve. He found it difficult to break down Kuznetsov in the quarter final and it was the same story against Evans in the semi. He won’t be having it any easier today.
Haas leads the head to heads 2-1 though they have never met on a hard court.
The key to this one will probably be the Cilic return of serve. He isn’t known for his return of serve but has posted better figures than Haas this week. Haas has held 90% of his service games. It’s hard to see many breaks in this one! I have Cilic a slight favourite but his SP of 1.56 is way too low. 1.80 would be more realistic.
Laying Cilic isn’t a bad place to start. I will look to get in below 1.35.
Cilic to win in 3 sets.
Update: Cilic won 6-3, 6-4.
Vina del Mar: Fognini v L Mayer
I had tipped Fognini against Almagro and was sweating at 1am this morning. He led 5-3, 40-15 in the third set but blew it. They ended up in a tie break. Fognini won an early minibreak but gave it back. He scraped through in the end.
Mayer had also had some tough matches. Robredo in the second round took it to 3 sets as did Gimeno Traver in the quarter final.
1.33 on Fognini is understandable after the year he had in 2013 on the clay. His legs may be a little heavy after a long match and with little recovery time and Mayer won’t be giving much away on serve. I think we will see a higher price on the Italian but he will come through a tight match. Laying him between 1.20 and 1.25 should give us a chance for a trade and I will be switching the green to Fognini.
Update: Fognini won 6-2, 6-4.