I can’t say I am sad to see the back of the US Open. From a trading point of view it’s been great but trying to find the outright winner in a lot of the matches was a bit of a nightmare.
This week is all WTA so we find value entries and ride the swings!
WTA Quebec, 16:00 – Hradecka v Larcher de Brito
They have played just once which was at Wimbledon this year. Larcher de Brito won in straight sets.
Hradecka has a pretty decent serve when she is playing well but we haven’t seen her at her best for a while now. She has had a bit of success on the ITF circuit this season but that was on clay.
Larcher de Brito hasn’t had much luck in the past on indoor hard courts. She starts as a 1.67 favourite but this one can go either way.
If Hradecka can get her serve going it will lift her confidence and she can make a match of this. Larcher de Brito’s serve can be vulnerable and i think we will see a lot of swings in this one.
A slight edge to Larcher de Brito but hopefully she will trade above evens.
WTA Quebec, 18:00 – Dabrowski v Savchuk
This probably won’t be a top class match as both are outside the top 200. However that type of match can often be good for trading as long as there is sufficient liquidity.
Dabrowski’s last 4 losses were all as underdog. However 3 of them went to a deciding set. (Larcher de Brito, Rogowska and Barthel). She hasn’t had much luck with her draws in Canada in the last couple of seasons but hasn’t lost as a favourite since the final of an ITF event in July last year. She starts at 1.83 today.
other than the qualifying rounds this week Savchuk hasn’t won a match on indoor hard courts since January last year.
I am going with Dabrowski to get a win in front of her home crowd. I will wait to back her when an early break behind.
Wow we’re getting trades from these matches but they aren’t going as expected as regards the outright winner.
These matches are pretty random today. Taking good positions has kept things under control but trying to remove the liability and let a trade run just hasn’t worked for me today (although worked extremely well yesterday).
WTA Quebec, 23:00 – Babos v Oprandi
They have met just once. Babos won but it was in early 2012 and on clay.
Oprandi hasn’t won a WTA first round match since April. That week she reached the final in Marrakesh and the experience seems to have turned her game to shit.
Babos has had a little more success at least in recent months. She played well on the grass in Birmingham.
1.43 on Babos is just about understandable given Oprandi’s lack of form but whilst I think Oprandi will be competitive for part of the match and should push that price higher if Babos is motivated she has the better hard court game.
Wait for 1.70 on Babos.
The way today is going this probably means Oprandi wins in straight sets!