13:00 – Tsonga v Ljubicic
Rankings are 18 and 15. Head to heads are 2-1 to Ljubicic.
The stats for these two are remarkably similar in just about all categories so stats aren’t going to help us today.
Ljubicic’s favourite surface is without doubt indoor hard courts and he is certainly in great form. His serving in the firsts et against baghdatis was fantastic. He faltered a little in the second set and should have served out the tie break but bottled it.
Tsonga had a good win over Llodra in the second round. He had a walkover in the quarter final when Berdych pulled out. Whether that will help him I aren’t sure. He will be more rested and people talk about Ljubicic getting tired ( myself included) but recently he hasn’t seemed to.
Tsonga may take a game or 2 to get his timing and that might be enough to let Ljubicic in for an early break.
Either way I expect Ljubicic to take the opening set.
Backing Ljubicic on serve in the first set has to be a good way to start and perhaps a half stake back of him from the start.
As its a semi final and the stats are so even I think 3 sets are very likely so laying the first set winner could work well.
I give a slight edge to Ljubicic.
Update: Unfortunately Ljubicic’s serve let him down today. A first serve percentage of 55 just isn’t going to get the job done at this level. Ljubicic served for the second set at 5-4 but was broken and then lost the match in a tie break.
Tsonga won 6-4, 7-6.