Nadal leads the head to heads 6-3. They played 5 times last season. Fognini won 3 of them including 2 on clay.
Nadal had a tough week last week as he won the title in Monte Carlo. The final against Monfils must have taken a lot out of him. He has won his matches in straight sets this week but how are his energy levels?
Fognini started the week slowly losing the first set to Youzhny but has won his 4 sets since then comfortably. He will love to have another go at Nadal although I feel Nadal is in better form than he was last season.
I think there is a fair chance of Fognini taking a set. he should be up for this one. Its worth a lay on Nadal at this price.