Dimitrov 2.28, Del Potro 1.77
Del Potro leads their previous matches 5-1 although it was Dimitrov who won their most recent meeting. In Cincinnati in August Dimitrov won in straight sets on a hard court. That was their only match on an outdoor hard court.
Both have won 8 of their last 10 on hard courts. Del Potro has a higher ROI in his last 10.
This could be a great match. Dimitrov needed 3 sets to beat a tired Dzumhur in the last round. He was only broken once but his serve came under a lot of pressure. He also hit 9 double faults which suggests he wasn’t fully focused. He reached the final last year where he lost to Andy Murray in straight sets.
Del Potro served really well in his last match but Cuevas also found the timing on his own serve. Del Potro faced just 3 break points and saved them all. Surprisingly this is his first visit to Beijing. He reached the semi finals at the US Open where he beat Roger Federer in the quarter final.
I give Del Potro the edge today but expect a really tight match. At least 1 tie break. . Wait for 2.00 before backing him.
Update: Dimitrov won 7-6, 7-5.
Del Potro was a break ahead in both sets. He was a mini break up in the tie break. In the second set he took a 5-2 lead before losing 5 games in a row. Disappointing meltdown.