Nadal has won all 7 of their previous meetings. Their most recent match was in October last year and he won in 3 sets on an indoor court in Basel.
Dimitrov only faced 1 break point in the last round. He has had 2 very tight 3 set wins so far and today certainly isn’t going to be any easier for him!
Three of Nadal’s 4 sets this week were 6-1. He needed a 2nd set tie break against Mannarino. The fact that he hasn’t been tested could work against him and I think Dimitrov will be competitive here. I won’t be surprised if he takes an early break lead.
Back Nadal if he gets broken. He starts at around 1.33 and that is not a good price to be laying him.