Schwartzman 1.69, Ferrer 2.38
Schwartzman won their only previous meeting. That was in March this year in Miami. He won in straight sets on a hard court.
They have similar overall results this year with 58% of matches won. Ferrer has a slightly better ROI. This is Ferrer’s first indoor event of the season but he has better indoor results over the last 12 months.
Schwartzman beat Escobedo in straight sets in the last round but he often made very hard work of his service games. He faced 9 break points and was broken 3 times but was taken to deuce a lot. He reached the quarter finals at the US Open and the semis in Tokyo earlier this month. Both those tournaments were outdoors.
Ferrer has shown occasional glimpses of what he is capable of this year. He made the semi finals In Cincinnati in August beating Dominic Thiem in the quarter final. He has needed 3 sets in both his matches so far this week.
Ferrer is far from his top 10 form this year but we have value on him today as underdog. Lay Schwartzman if he breaks in the early games. If he doesn’t get a break a lay below 1.40 is fine. Three sets seem likely.
Update: Schwartzman won in 2 sets. He broke first but Ferrer broke back and had a set point. He couldn’t take it and fell apart a little after that. Good trade though.