14:15 – Federer v Davydenko
Rankings are 1 and 7. Head to heads are 12-0 to Federer.
In the past, Davydenko has struggled to even take a set from Federer. However they haven’t played since early 2008 and Davy has improved his game immensely since then.
I still expect Federer to win the match but I think Davydenko will give a much better account of himself this time.
Davydenko must be tired after his 3 setter with Soderling last night so if he does manage to keep this close I think he will simply run out of steam. Federer is supremely fit and rarely looks as tired as the other players.
Feder will be keen to return to winning ways after his defeat to Del Potro.
Fed is 1.29 which is pretty low to be backing. He will come out all guns blazing and I would expect him to be going for an early break so his price may not rise too much above its starting level.
Ideally, Davy needs a fast start to lift Feds price to a level worth backing at. I don’t think Davydenko has much chance of winning the match. If Davydenko is tired it could be over quite quickly but I’d love to see him do well today.
Update : Wow! What a match. I ignored my own advice and backed Fed from the start. He had a couple of break points in Davy’s first service game and I backed him again. Muppet. Fed threw away the chances. When he lost serve I was in a little trouble but held firm. He didn’t look comfortable though and his forehand just wasn’t working.
When Davydenko got a second break of serve I switched sides. Worried a bit when Fed got a break back and then breathed a little easier when Davy broke yet again! At the end of the set I had a decision to make. Red up or hold on for Davy to break Fed’s serve yet again.
Didn’t happen and as the set was going down to the wire I was resigned to having a hefty loss. Fed got the break at the end of the set to level the match. I’d missed my chance for damage limitation.
As the 3rd set progressed I expected the usual outcome that Fed would win. At 4-5 down, Davy was serving and went 0-30 down after Fed got a lucky net cord. Surely that was the end?
Davy fought back to 5-5. Next game Fed seemed to have won it but Davydenko managed to get the break. Couldnt believe my luck and hit the hedge. Had I left it it would have been a £250 profit but I had pushed my luck way too much already.
Great win for Davydenko, his first ever against Federer. 6-2, 4-6, 7-5 . I need a drink.
Note, on the screenshot it shows that I have several unmatched bets. There are no unmatched bets but its a bug with Evo
I’ll post about the other semi a little later. I have a monthly shop to do now. Hate food shopping on the last Saturday in the month. I may kill someone this time……..
………ok, didn’t kill anyone but can anyone explain to me why probably 60% of the people in there were over 70? Why are they shopping on a Saturday?? Business meetings all week??
20:45 – Soderling v Del Potro
Rankings are 9 and 5. Head to heads are 2-1 to Del Potro.
A clash of 2 big hitters. Soderling may be tired after his 3 setter last night. He took a nasty fall towards the end of that match and I thought he was limping slightly between points. He may be feeling that today.
Del Potro has had an extra day’s rest and his confidence will be sky high after beating Federer. He seems to be getting better as the week goes on.
I expect Del Potro to win today. His momentum has built throughout the week and I think Soderling has maybe hit his peak a couple of games ago.
Back DelPotro on serve. If you’re happy to back both players’ serves then do so but don’t stay in too long if the game isn’t going with serve.
Scalping should work well but don’t make the mistake of thinking that you have to trade all the entry points shown on the members site. 15-15, 15-30 and 15-40 are good points to lay the server. 0-30 is also an option but the downside if the server wins a point is slightly larger than the other entry points.
Update: Yet another 3 setter. Also 2 tie breaks. You can’t get much closer than that.
Soderling took the first set on a tie break. Del Potro leveled it in the second set. In the decider, Soderling managed to break Del Potro for the first time in the match to lead 4-2. Del Potro was able to play the bigger points much better and several unforced errors from Soderling allowed DP to bring it back to another tie break.
Del Potro raced to a 4-0 lead and held on to take the match