ATP Finals 2009 – The Final

14:30 – Del Potro v Davydenko

Rankings are 5 and 7. Head to heads are 2-1 to Davydenko. However they haven’t played for 12 months and both players have improved a great deal in that time.

Its been a great tournament and this final  won’t see a drop in that standard. A very tough one to call but most of the matches have been that way.

Davydenko is on a roll. Of the two he’ll probably suffer less with fatigue. Del Potro tends to be very tired by the end of the week although he has obviously worked very hard on his stamina this season.davy final

Both have beaten Fed this week.

Del Potro has the bigger serve but he had that 12 months ago when Davydenko beat him in straight sets. Its the rest of his game that he has improved and the serve won’t be enough on its own to beat Davy.

Davydenko is one of the best receivers on the tour and he has the experience to outwit Del Potro. For those reasons I am leaning towards a Davydenko win.

Back either or both players on serve. If you only want to back one player……flip a coin!

Same scalping entry points as yesterday. 15-15, 15-30 and 15-40 – lay the server. If you can be on the right side of the first break of serve  in the first set the price movement will be 40+ ticks from their starting prices. DP is currently favourite on Betfair at 1.82 .

Update: Great performance from Davydenko. Just 1 break in each set. I tried to trade it carefully as it could easily go either way. Davy got an early break in the first and managed to hold on to take the set. At tha point I was +£19.

I backed Davy on serve in the second and increased the green on him to £35 but when he looked like he was in danger of being broken I hedged out and lost all but £5.

More backing him on serve increased my green again and when he was 30-0 against serve at 4-4 I backed him. I greened up when he completed the break.

Davydenko won 6-3, 6-4.

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