ATP finals – Sunday

14:15 – Murray v Del Potro

Rankings are 4 and 5. Head to heads are 4-1 to Murray who won their last match in 3 sets ( August).

Murray is 1.40 on Betfair. I think that price is too low as long as Del Potro isn’t still carrying his wrist injury. Only 1 of their 5 matches has been a straight sets win and that included a tie break.

Murray did well in this tournament last year but he will need to be at the top of his form to get through th round-robin stage this time.

His price is probably being kept low due to the tournament being in the UK, its on the BBC and a large number of Betfair users are British. The punters will be out in force on this match. They’re backing the Brit.

For me, scalping is the way to trade it. You can also choose to back the server. If you choose that option I recommend watching the first service games to see who is settling into the game best. All the players this week can be backed on serve.

Backing Murray on serve can be a little nervy as he often seems to get to 0-30. He will then throw down a couple of big serves and save the game.

Get a feel for the match before jumping in.

I’d expect Murray to win.

Update: Murray was soon in control of the first set  and took it 6-3. At the start of the second set he handed Del Potro an early break of serve with a terrible service game. Murray broke back but then lost serve again. DP took the second set 6-3.

The deciding set was all Murray.  Del Potro’s form started to disappear towards the end and he looked nervous on serve.

Murray won 6-3, 3-6, 6-2.

I stuck with the scalping technique and managed to avoid  a single losing trade which is unusual.




20-45 – Federer v Verdasco

Rankings are 1 and 8. Head to heads are 3-0 to Fed.

Verdasco has never taken a set from the Number 1. He has had a very good season but I can’t see him making too much of an impression this week.

Back Federer from the start or back him on serve. This should be a straight sets win.

If Verdasco can keep the first set close then you may get the chance to back Fed a little higher than his current price of 1.21 .

Update: Fed made a very slow start. Verdasco was playing well and most of his shots were coming off.  Anyone laying Fed from the start will have had a nice profit.

Fed started to settle a little by the end of the set but Verdasco took it.  Second set was close and Fed finally got the break at 6-5 to equal the set score. Verdasco’s spirit was broken as well as his serve as fed ran away with the deciding set.

Federer won 4-6, 7-5, 6-1.

My first couple of trades didn’t work out and after the first few games I was red for £30. Then unexpected visitors landed on us and I had to leave the game so that was how I left it. Probably payback from the gambling gods for my win on the Arsenal match!

    Trading Guide

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