ATP Finals – Thur

14:15 – Murray v Verdasco

 

Rankings are 4 and 8. Head to heads are 7-1 in Murray’s favour.TENNIS-ATP-MASTERS

 

Murray needs a win to get to the semi finals. Verdasco is out having already lost both his matches.  The market seems to have written off the Spaniard’s chances as Murray is 1.26 on Betfair.

 

Thay have had some close sets in their 8 meeting but in every set that was either 7-6 or 7-5 it is Murray who won it.

 

Hopefully Murray has been working on his serve which was, in his own words, pants against Federer. He still has everything to play for and should be motivated to be aggressive to take the win. The “home” crowd will be right behind him.

 

I would expect Verdasco to be working hard to try to salvage a little pride from this week and may take Murray close. I’d therefore expect Murray’s price to move higher than 1.29 in the first set.

 

You could lay Murray at the start but don’t get greedy before hedging.  You could scalp the match if you’re not comfortable laying from the start. If you lay and Murray breaks  serve hedge out for the small loss.

 

Update: Verdasco DID take him close! The first set went to Murray with a late break of serve. Then it was a match diminated by service as both held their games. It went to a tie break and Verdasco managed to win his first ever tie break against the Scot.

 

A very tight 3rd set went with serve once again. This time the tie break went to Murray. he must have thought he had done enough to qualify for the Semis.

 

 

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20:45 – Federer v Del Potro

 

Rankings are 1 and 5. Head to heads are 6-1 to Federer. Del Potro’s single win was their last match in the the  US Open final.

 

Federer is in great form and pretty much demolished Murray in their deciding set. Del Potro was surprisingly taken to a 3rd set tie break by Verdasco.

 

Federer will now  be looking to get through this tournament undefeated. His price of 1.38 seems a little low and will probably trade a bit higher although its probably a fair reflection of the expected outcome.

 

Scalp the match in the early stages so you can check that Fed is in control. The first set could be very close. You could back Fed from the start but Del Potro will be fighting for a place in the semis and won’t be rolling over for the Number 1.

Fed rarely lets a lead slip although if anyone can do it ( when on form ) its Del Potro.

 

Update: Federer was never in the lead, losing his serve in the very first game. Del Potro had to struggle to hold his own serve but broke the Federer serve a further 2 times. Federer fought backin the second and took it into a tie break which he won to level the match.

 

Fed seemed to be in control and Del Potro looked tired but the Argentinian kept holding his serve. At 2-2 Federer played a terrible service game and handed the break of serve to Del Potro. DP had to win the set 6-3 or better to bounce Murray out of the tournament. If Fed won 4 games or more then it was Murray who went through.

 

Del Potro continued to play brilliant tennis and closed out the set 6-3. He won 6-2, 6-7, 6-3.  DP and Federer go into the semi finals.

    Trading Guide

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