Expect Thiem to be competitive but Nadal should make it 11 French Open titles
Due to start at 2 pm.
Nadal 1.25, Thiem 4.80
Nadal leads their previous matches 6-3. they last met in May this year in the quarter final in Madrid. Thiem won in straight sets. All their matches have been on clay.
Nadal has better overall results in the last 12 months and also in 2018. He has won 25 of his 26 matches on clay this year. Thiem has won 24 of 29. Stats for the tournament favour Nadal.
Nadal has had tougher opponents in this tournament. He has lost just set in his 6 matches which was against Schwartzman in the quarter final. Del Potro and Gasquet were both beaten comfortably. He has won the French Open 10 times. Experience of the occasion is strongly on his side today.
Thiem has had an excellent season so far and especially so on clay. He is the only person to have beaten Nadal on this surface in 2018. He needed 4 sets to beat Tsitsipas, Berrettini and Nishikori. In the quarter final Zverev was running on fumes and just didn’t have the energy to compete. His semi final opponent was Cecchinato who had beaten Djokovic in the previous round. Cecchinato was more competitive than expected. often a win over Djokovic distracts a player from his preparation for the next round. Thiem took their first two sets 7-5, 7-6 and then ran away with the third set taking it 6-1.
If this was best of 3 sets then I’d give Thiem a chance but over 5 sets I have to go with Nadal. I expect Thiem to take a set and we have a slight chance of 5 sets.
Back Nadal if he loses set 1.
Update: Nadal had treatment for cramp in his wrist when he went 2 sets up. Even that didn’t stop him and from 2-2 he won 4 games in a row to take the title.
6-4, 6-3, 6-2