Nadal has won 16 of their 19 matches. Their most recent meeting was at this tournament last year. Nadal won in straight sets. Verdasco beat him at the Australian Open last year in 5 sets.
Nadal has lost just 3 matches this year and Verdasco has only lost 5. He
reached the final in Dubai losing to Murray in 2 sets. Nadal reached the final in Acapulco and surprisingly lost to Querrey in 2 sets.
Verdasco can make a match of this but I would be surprised if he wins. It is worth laying Nadal around 1.15 if we see that price early in the match. Remove liability if Nadal is then broken.
Nadal starts around 1.24.